Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff81840ca52de9c4ce8b37b14812b09d1f5a3437ff190f363bbc12ceb2f125aa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $136,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $142,849
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $136,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked No | 14c | 16,291$2,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,285.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 8,042$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.88 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 2c | 6,392$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.17 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb8…30ccbacked No | 6c | 4,797$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…08a9backed No | 2c | 3,420$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…9f73backed No | 66c | 3,047$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -52%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 2c | 2,600$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf904…53febacked No | 4c | 1,686$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 1,684$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb2…a2d7backed No | 4c | 1,681$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 42c | 1,491$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.31 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ab…6943backed No | 4c | 1,441$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…57bcbacked No | 3c | 1,120$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b3…46e2backed No | 5c | 1,020$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…3c39backed Yes | 67c | 963.38$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.29 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…e7cbbacked No | 2c | 889.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.45per pick | 22cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 47c | 850$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.5 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 2c | 837.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x935a…6235backed Yes | 68c | 836.51$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.48 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…689cbacked No | 54c | 829.23$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3b…3b15backed No | 5c | 782.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…4755backed No | 1c | 726.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 66c | 720$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.95 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 43c | 717.38$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.2 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 67c | 649.98$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.49 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe899…024dbacked No | 6c | 637.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 3c | 565.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b22…7bf9backed No | 4c | 512.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed Yes | 49c | 506.83$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.99 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb08…2948backed No | 5c | 475.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +91.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2679…7f29backed No | 3c | 473.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked Yes | 79c | 443.99$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d6…f60dbacked No | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfffe…4e6cbacked Yes | 64c | 363.81$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.73 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…90b9backed No | 4c | 360$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6744…596cbacked No | 6c | 346.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 343.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed No | 11c | 341.04$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…a9b9backed Yes | 46c | 338.74$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.92 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2066…2608backed No | 6c | 330.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 56c | 318.07$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.03 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6d…c268backed No | 3c | 316.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…4e71backed No | 48c | 299.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 73c | 273.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80bb…95e4backed No | 6c | 261.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed Yes | 61c | 250.77$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.86 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…9c6abacked No | 4c | 243.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…9a20backed Yes | 74c | 240$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.8 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.22per pick | 57cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 42c | 200$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x063b…3d59backed Yes | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.04 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 35c | 189.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f57…9b6cbacked No | 59c | 186.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 50c | 183.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.03 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc4…e23ebacked No | 5c | 182.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7269…4ed8backed No | 57c | 174.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 44c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 28c | 144$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 36c | 140.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 16c | 139.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 47c | 138.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3133…dc6ebacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 104.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…0387backed No | 51c | 97.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a00…60aabacked Yes | 43c | 92.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 50c | 92$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…8aa7backed No | 59c | 90$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 56c | 89.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…0b0dbacked Yes | 39c | 80$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.8 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1902…02d0backed Yes | 72c | 79.07$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x336e…60a3backed No | 28c | 70.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ea…e9e7backed Yes | 55c | 62.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 42cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2da…74e3backed Yes | 73c | 59.94$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 57.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 44c | 55.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2196…b03cbacked Yes | 47c | 51.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee93…62d9backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…d632backed Yes | 47c | 49.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc158…f3cabacked No | 52c | 48.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…709dbacked No | 59c | 47.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2181…f841backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 72cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…505cbacked No | 45c | 45.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 57c | 41.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c1…675ebacked No | 63c | 41.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 40.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed No | 39c | 34.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d1…c5a9backed Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e43…fdc1backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb56d…0d39backed Yes | 45c | 32.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3adc…972dbacked Yes | 80c | 30.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe168…04debacked No | 67c | 29.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia enter Sofiivka by February 28?this page
- Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.