Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x92137f9e112c001cbef3e32da9aca4b42cd3d161f51c2963779ae694d45a48da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,201
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,201 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 16c | 2,250$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.99 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +565%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 18c | 1,110$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb86…72e9backed Yes | 38c | 1,002$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.74 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +323.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 12c | 895.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…d1d1backed Yes | 16c | 636.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +124.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 14c | 552.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.01 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 5c | 499.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 11c | 405.11$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.15 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…5e45backed Yes | 9c | 382.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed Yes | 16c | 326.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 8c | 304$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.99 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 11c | 265.8$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.48 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 8c | 265.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb720…66a3backed Yes | 21c | 227.27$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 19cpaid | +146%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 11c | 148.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.55 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7772…5e17backed Yes | 17c | 117.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.29 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4d…d77fbacked Yes | 11c | 109.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd570…b90abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 37c | 70.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 49c | 66.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 27.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…75a6backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 78c | 17.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29?this page
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 25?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 26?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 27?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 28?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 30?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.