Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ab0c2e314000a5db6bc4677abf4051f5956de8ad9bf03d51a731e909ef6ed8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,223
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,223 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xedc0…99f3backed Yes | 0c | 4,918$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 17c | 1,843$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.79 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 12c | 1,090$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.79 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 676.22$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 74 | 35.1%26 W · 48 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 14c | 509.24$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 43c | 453.49$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6c…3647backed Yes | 25c | 413.29$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 14c | 399.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 19cpaid | +146%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 8c | 360.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 10c | 356.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.11 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed Yes | 6c | 300$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a2…9452backed Yes | 23c | 270.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.31 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.22per pick | 43cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce3…5e45backed Yes | 23c | 250$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 12c | 249.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee6b…8486backed Yes | 10c | 204$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 10c | 196.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed Yes | 17c | 179.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 9c | 159.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4d…d77fbacked Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 77c | 132.35$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…d95cbacked Yes | 19c | 125.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…7492backed Yes | 18c | 123.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53c6…0537backed No | 68c | 102.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8063…b886backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +8.3wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x015e…f0edbacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2224…23e1backed No | 70c | 99.98$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 26c | 88.53$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 65 | 21.5%14 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…75a6backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc77…c035backed Yes | 27c | 76.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f5a…f5a8backed No | 78c | 74.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…a49fbacked No | 72c | 70.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked No | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 59.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 35c | 57.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.73 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…7e3ebacked No | 68c | 51.47$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…c7bcbacked Yes | 32c | 51.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.97 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Yes | 21c | 50.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…e011backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dc…018dbacked Yes | 25c | 49.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…7cdcbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 77c | 26.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaf…82ffbacked No | 78c | 25.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ee…5e9fbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c23…8c71backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc723…c5aebacked No | 79c | 16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc370…829abacked No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 30?this page
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 25?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 26?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 27?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 28?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29?Yes won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.