Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa067b73f3c00536f841ceeab84998af6c0d96c213dfe095db4d7e3f41dd6dc0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeafc…0d5cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,090$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed Yes | 13c | 4,287$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.36 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 2c | 3,100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…b0dcbacked Yes | 21c | 1,268$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed Yes | 10c | 1,182$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 12c | 708.92$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 79c | 559.32$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca03…72e9backed Yes | 12c | 470.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 8c | 386.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.92 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429b…4b5dbacked Yes | 18c | 338.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.53 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 16c | 275$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 15c | 264.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.27per pick | 19cpaid | +146%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 80c | 261.64$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.33 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03b6…77ffbacked Yes | 13c | 199.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 21c | 191.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4d…d77fbacked Yes | 14c | 167.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 23cpaid | +105%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 79c | 162.74$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 12c | 149.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…07d7backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3939…68cfbacked Yes | 14c | 109.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa137…06d7backed Yes | 13c | 108.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 76c | 106.25$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 71c | 99.99$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…9e19backed Yes | 22c | 94.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b30…84ccbacked Yes | 17c | 90$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6228…96f3backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9b…a49fbacked No | 72c | 68.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac08…080cbacked No | 72c | 65.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 27.5%11 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 19c | 53.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf712…feaabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…32afbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…7cdcbacked No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f13…d602backed No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +150.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcaf…82ffbacked No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a5…1d13backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc12…eb59backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 31?this page
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 25?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 26?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 27?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 28?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29?Yes won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.