Venezuela · resolved market
Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5a849694f090de9d1a96405b5df5ed451208e400c6139b203fc9b999996a096
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,999
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,999 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Venezuela | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 11,086$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 164 | 4.9%8 W · 156 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,678$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x447f…1c2cbacked Yes | 9c | 823.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes | 6c | 519.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfe…3f7ebacked Yes | 6c | 323.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfc3…b21fbacked Yes | 13c | 305.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.26 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 3c | 304.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed Yes | 10c | 225.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a96…3d0dbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 16c | 199.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cb…f46dbacked Yes | 16c | 178.84$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 7c | 140.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe068…c5eabacked Yes | 10c | 122.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d65…0d96backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 25?this page
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 26?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 27?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 28?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 29?Yes won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 30?No won
- Will Trump strike a drug boat on October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.