Us Politics · resolved market
Trump approval Up or Down this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb0b37ccf453ecd594770111ecc6bbd58e03662beacb32c4479cb9e3fe7a648c2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,675
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,675 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Up | 2c | 3,100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 129 | 10.9%14 W · 115 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Up | 3c | 1,079$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Up | 18c | 1,073$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.57 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e4abbacked Up | 2c | 529.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Up | 18c | 366.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Down | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +49%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…fd58backed Up | 42c | 235.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc230…6192backed Up | 13c | 213.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Up | 13c | 174.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…a29fbacked Up | 31c | 145.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…01f6backed Down | 68c | 116.84$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43f8…2903backed Up | 25c | 114.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 84 | 47.6%40 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdac1…7249backed Up | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d7…b7cdbacked Up | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…b7fdbacked Down | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…bb74backed Down | 71c | 83.96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea2…b797backed Up | 20c | 77.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Down | 63c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7427…9eb9backed Up | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Up | 37c | 48.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4c…3486backed Down | 56c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…fbc2backed Down | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7656…194bbacked Down | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.