Token Launches · resolved market
Wormhole token FDV more than 7 billion a week after airdrop?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfee3318e910149d32c2345a4fb50470c107f8cc232b41b2b3d30ebe7e9a3d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,672
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,672 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 42c | 1,665$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.68 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1501…fa5fbacked Yes | 61c | 1,500$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed No | 63c | 1,249$788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$787.72 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 14cpaid | -96.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84f9…0285backed Yes | 49c | 942$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed No | 37c | 711$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.03 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc5…38d9backed Yes | 34c | 472$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 22cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58fa…5a5abacked Yes | 72c | 430.55$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.32 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 57c | 286.9$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 38c | 265.08$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab57…842bbacked Yes | 37c | 260$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd89…29bebacked Yes | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3098…568abacked No | 63c | 252$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb28…bd69backed Yes | 38c | 182$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda75…b8fdbacked No | 17c | 177.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 78c | 177.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x209c…d319backed Yes | 35c | 139.92$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba2…4f27backed Yes | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf759…be6fbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked No | 70c | 75$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1eb…dabbbacked Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…4677backed Yes | 79c | 15.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wormhole token FDV more than 7 billion a week after airdrop?this page
- Wormhole token FDV between 4-5 billion a week after airdrop?No won
- Wormhole token FDV between 5-6 billion a week after airdrop?No won
- Wormhole token FDV between 6-7 billion a week after airdrop?No won
- Wormhole token FDV less than 4 billion a week after airdrop?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.