TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

US Open: Swiatek vs. Pegula

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pegulaof Swiatek, Pegula
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$213,305
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$225,499

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $213,305 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2a14…0762backed Pegula48c80,483$38,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,190.55683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+65.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9f47…af93backed Swiatek52c79,719$41,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41,835.181533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-45.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed Swiatek76c5,704$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,320.351127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-42.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Pegula71c4,426$3,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,276.7714345.5%65 W · 78 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+0.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Swiatek76c4,097$3,113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,113.434944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Pegula23c4,066$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,130.663542.9%15 W · 20 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Pegula57c3,500$1,985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5151100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f7…02dfbacked Pegula49c3,000$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63dd…c15fbacked Swiatek56c2,679$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50030%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x09af…d337backed Pegula24c2,360$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,793.6666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+45.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x05af…4ff3backed Pegula24c1,729$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Pegula52c1,704$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$815.71735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-37.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e67…91b0backed Swiatek46c1,700$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7792821.4%6 W · 22 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8da6…8252backed Pegula24c1,588$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1388…339abacked Swiatek49c1,556$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.6722737.4%85 W · 142 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4b6…bb1cbacked Pegula56c1,361$762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.06333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Swiatek32c1,250$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.55151%26 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x002e…ab83backed Pegula58c1,240$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.87785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick58cpaid+31.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd13…e6f1backed Swiatek3c1,166$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777e…2836backed Swiatek72c1,130$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81460%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Pegula44c802.79$353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.563928.2%11 W · 28 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb6…1b65backed Pegula25c800$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+33.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef05…1416backed Swiatek78c679.37$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb51…742dbacked Pegula60c610$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24415860.8%96 W · 62 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e8…ce3bbacked Pegula71c610$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.22366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e7…1f5ebacked Swiatek5c598.78$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dbd…af92backed Pegula23c568.22$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.532045%9 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Pegula51c537.36$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed Swiatek77c500.4$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.79359.1%55 W · 38 L+8.0wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+17.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5ec3…168cbacked Swiatek77c488.27$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1332…6727backed Swiatek77c471.44$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c6…811bbacked Swiatek77c471.22$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb27d…fc9cbacked Swiatek77c465.51$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.65757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ffe…8440backed Swiatek77c458.57$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefd7…a7b1backed Swiatek77c452.23$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd319…ddf5backed Swiatek77c442.71$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x78bf…8a59backed Swiatek78c410.26$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3027…9b4dbacked Swiatek77c408.48$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe411…04c5backed Pegula52c397.91$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1916136.1%22 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa975…92d9backed Swiatek77c369.52$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e1…0b47backed Pegula54c329$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf59a…6a0cbacked Swiatek76c328.95$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Pegula24c312.5$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.557249.5%283 W · 289 L-32.8wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Swiatek77c302.43$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.87862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f58…9c6abacked Pegula54c259.03$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.151216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick36cpaid-73.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b88…7b00backed Pegula56c220.89$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.19683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+38.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x509f…8fb7backed Pegula24c208.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.331612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3a…e7bdbacked Swiatek28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-60.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe91…70ffbacked Swiatek76c145.54$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.61742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Pegula63c137.08$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.78450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-25.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Pegula22c132$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.9618740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x478c…1c81backed Swiatek76c126$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.76475%3 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick66cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x200e…d146backed Swiatek76c105.3$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.03333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick69cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Swiatek36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365822.4%13 W · 45 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-59.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51cc…8839backed Swiatek76c98.68$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick70cpaid-12.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4437…503ebacked Swiatek76c98$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.484973.5%36 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick69cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82cc…5308backed Pegula54c97.81$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.992100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+55.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c8…fc49backed Swiatek42c93.08$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x670d…fbe9backed Swiatek77c85.47$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.1880%0 W · 8 L-3.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbca0…a3efbacked Swiatek77c65.88$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.73366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed Pegula22c52.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.25438.9%21 W · 33 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9d…9b95backed Pegula24c50$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388851.1%45 W · 43 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed88…6a3dbacked Swiatek78c49.31$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.461030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-56.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd1d…b57fbacked Swiatek78c35.28$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3f7…5425backed Swiatek77c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3633…054ebacked Swiatek76c32.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa0e…3576backed Swiatek78c32.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1430%0 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa58…030bbacked Pegula56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae5…40e1backed Swiatek78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201450%7 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa52d…9505backed Swiatek78c25.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbea9…02f9backed Swiatek76c25.13$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f7b…fc01backed Swiatek77c24.79$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2b0…8090backed Swiatek77c22.08$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad89…704abacked Swiatek78c20.51$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b70…20a3backed Swiatek50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879f…f155backed Swiatek77c19.48$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-36%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f2e…8b5dbacked Swiatek78c19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.82475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+21.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2686…7a67backed Swiatek76c18.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.75887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick66cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x223f…5e6abacked Swiatek78c17.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3e0…66d0backed Swiatek78c17.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a78…4d4ebacked Swiatek78c15.38$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e5…46a8backed Swiatek77c14.29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8402…97f8backed Swiatek78c14.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6076…13dfbacked Swiatek78c13.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.75333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick60cpaid-38.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7186…fbacbacked Swiatek77c13.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.