Movies · resolved market
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $150m and $170m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5af8be49548657d82c6d8493290b83034e6092962d7e4a8e44e3f438d1210c9d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,509
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5df7…8434backed Yes | 8c | 5,949$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.96 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 9c | 5,809$544 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.19 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf2…b7bcbacked Yes | 1c | 4,468$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c17…169abacked Yes | 5c | 1,841$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 25c | 1,413$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2b…1298backed Yes | 5c | 1,360$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 27c | 1,253$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.16 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked Yes | 27c | 1,094$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 19c | 1,000$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa764…1294backed Yes | 3c | 909.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3826…84efbacked Yes | 19c | 907.74$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71bb…27b9backed Yes | 2c | 850$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 79c | 796$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.53 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 74c | 790$582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.62 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…8130backed Yes | 6c | 675$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 18c | 643.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.82 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbc…d00fbacked Yes | 13c | 610$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.9 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…e5b6backed Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa149…0e92backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3aa…5313backed Yes | 10c | 494.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 19c | 450.67$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 21c | 411.05$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69f…6874backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +85.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 21c | 368.8$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.95 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf690…b6a4backed Yes | 3c | 366.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530e…a4b2backed Yes | 5c | 354.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3b…1cf2backed Yes | 12c | 350$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…feb0backed Yes | 12c | 327.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a09…abe5backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ff…8047backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…97a5backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…4669backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb623…d92cbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 23c | 180$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98eb…2c66backed Yes | 23c | 173.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 20cpaid | +95.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce00…eb1abacked Yes | 12c | 161.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…af86backed Yes | 67c | 154.05$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x376b…8a13backed Yes | 20c | 141.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked Yes | 25c | 140$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Yes | 15c | 137.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f1…7b16backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb33…5924backed Yes | 26c | 122.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 32cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…765abacked Yes | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…2a72backed Yes | 20c | 117$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…f976backed Yes | 23c | 112.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…3b43backed Yes | 23c | 108.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe894…cc4ebacked Yes | 22c | 102.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd1…76b9backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…2beabacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…3ababacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…1f5ebacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…07a4backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 22c | 51.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa779…5772backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d65…fcf6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc65…ead3backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…91f1backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa183…f6f4backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd3…0272backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $150m and $170m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $110m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.