Movies · resolved market
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17620fcf724a1f33730294e7cb5b6cd09a4cd37b0a635173cf839709c5500b5a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 1c | 4,324$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…8434backed Yes | 3c | 3,511$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47db…3625backed Yes | 0c | 3,401$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 21c | 3,335$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.18 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf690…b6a4backed Yes | 0c | 2,440$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 7c | 1,988$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked Yes | 4c | 1,919$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…4c94backed Yes | 3c | 1,733$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa827…e147backed Yes | 22c | 1,722$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b9b…a65ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,600$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.61 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 24cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44b3…28a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,549$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc003…daa1backed Yes | 1c | 1,289$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3743…e5b6backed Yes | 1c | 1,073$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fc60backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 4c | 813.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…07a4backed Yes | 5c | 809.13$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…91f1backed Yes | 4c | 769.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…4669backed Yes | 4c | 501.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef4c…827cbacked Yes | 5c | 317.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d0…0c2ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc729…5faabacked Yes | 5c | 278.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e70…9047backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 21c | 222$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…2a9ebacked Yes | 8c | 190.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff4…887dbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 31cpaid | -90.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $150m and $170m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $110m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.