Movies · resolved market
Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $110m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeeb5658ea7b4a6d30c420fe61541aca9184f2eac50748ae879c0c8e5d97a121b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $216,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $140,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x243f…65a9backed Yes | 0c | 20,440$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…996bbacked Yes | 0c | 18,388$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 0c | 12,573$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.88 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…8434backed Yes | 2c | 8,675$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.48 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fc60backed Yes | 1c | 7,056$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 0c | 4,747$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c2…4c94backed Yes | 3c | 3,912$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 8c | 3,186$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.29 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0911…0616backed Yes | 1c | 3,126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 10c | 3,040$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…faafbacked Yes | 2c | 2,368$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x359a…deacbacked Yes | 4c | 2,349$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf690…b6a4backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa764…1294backed Yes | 0c | 2,100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…c705backed Yes | 6c | 1,599$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…91f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,550$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc00…da9bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,280$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb80…3d39backed Yes | 7c | 1,227$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4f…1682backed Yes | 2c | 1,053$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6d…1afcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8075…af14backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…da00backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15f6…19d5backed Yes | 11c | 858.51$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8f…ac60backed Yes | 2c | 536.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Yes | 2c | 473.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 128 | 6.3%8 W · 120 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc70c…07a4backed Yes | 2c | 430$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 7c | 328.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79a7…2adabacked Yes | 4c | 325$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b6…2a9ebacked Yes | 10c | 253.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5e…b947backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross less than $110m opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $110m and $130m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $130m and $150m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross between $150m and $170m opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Deadpool & Wolverine' gross more than $170m opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.