Movies · resolved market
Will 'Red One' gross more than $27m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5381d274a42e50197d3ba5654cf6f56c4897553330111061f511b65b1ca011d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,524
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $147,169
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,524 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 0c | 48,410$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 2c | 12,185$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.35 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2900…771abacked No | 2c | 4,394$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…acaebacked No | 1c | 3,812$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked No | 67c | 2,260$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.44 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed No | 23c | 2,059$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.7 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…c0c6backed No | 1c | 1,565$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab64…d070backed Yes | 34c | 1,463$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$962.75 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 16c | 1,250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +58%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8897…dab3backed Yes | 34c | 1,045$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$689.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 35c | 984.1$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.73 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 847.59$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.2 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked No | 2c | 760.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed Yes | 43c | 697.28$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.28 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ea…7776backed No | 40c | 600$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 9c | 578.42$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 547.3$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.53 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae81…c235backed Yes | 73c | 504.18$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 57c | 500$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked No | 5c | 411.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 65c | 405.95$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.53 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 33c | 359.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…11c7backed No | 14c | 350.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b81…274cbacked No | 11c | 322.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae69…bbcabacked Yes | 32c | 289.03$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 13c | 250$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65a1…5928backed Yes | 73c | 242.44$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca9…b942backed No | 34c | 228.81$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b97…99e5backed Yes | 77c | 185.4$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.15 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 54c | 170.51$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.43 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 36c | 168.07$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x119a…2192backed Yes | 78c | 166.91$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 31c | 165$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.5 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…8758backed Yes | 34c | 155.01$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x814a…25adbacked Yes | 34c | 153$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.39 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked No | 15c | 140$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 12c | 132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 80 | 23.8%19 W · 61 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…ed08backed No | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…b59bbacked Yes | 76c | 110.26$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.86 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed No | 66c | 109.78$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.58 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379d…54efbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf338…14f2backed Yes | 31c | 72.59$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d25…6176backed Yes | 33c | 60.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4616…e881backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 54.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…d5edbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 55c | 43.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d2…9c24backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…7592backed No | 38c | 33.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…5247backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Red One' gross more than $27m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Red One' gross between $18-21m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Red One' gross between $21-24m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Red One' gross between $24-27m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Red One' gross less than $18m on opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.