Movies · resolved market
Will 'Red One' gross between $21-24m on opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d456befb20facba8f2d3df02fdca74064745bf0ab28eba3bc8c95e1e9ac9cbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,759
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,991
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,759 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 38,479$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.74 | 187 | 19.3%36 W · 151 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 2,139$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 984.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 24c | 870.27$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.1 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 2c | 759.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf19c…0e97backed Yes | 2c | 672.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 19c | 595$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2f…aaf2backed Yes | 6c | 352.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 23c | 321.69$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 76c | 283.66$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed No | 77c | 258.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.62 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed Yes | 26c | 180$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 165.02$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8564…4b2ebacked Yes | 21c | 159$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 116 | 25.9%30 W · 86 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98b1…06bebacked Yes | 28c | 97.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9d…4c8abacked Yes | 22c | 92.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed Yes | 22c | 87.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…f7a4backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d9…0d2fbacked Yes | 15c | 80.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 24c | 49.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Red One' gross between $21-24m on opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Red One' gross between $18-21m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Red One' gross between $24-27m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Red One' gross less than $18m on opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Red One' gross more than $27m on opening weekend?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.