TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump save TikTok in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$99,879
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,003

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,879 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 140 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7327…151abacked No3c7,124$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.363212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6718…80d1backed No37c4,513$1,683 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,682.585328.3%15 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No3c4,356$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1411848.3%57 W · 61 L+13.0wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+41.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed Yes56c2,934$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,279.961384.6%11 W · 2 L+4.2wins+0.32per pick53cpaid+79.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No5c2,564$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.393859.4%36 W · 349 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-56.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf916…9224backed Yes52c2,539$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,219.294650%23 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No6c2,494$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.515124.5%37 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No1c1,744$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.642400%0 W · 240 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5fb0…2cb3backed No36c1,309$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cc2…a7d9backed No3c1,170$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed Yes38c1,063$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.943548.6%17 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bfc…93f7backed No42c1,017$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118127.2%22 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed No14c957.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.415924.5%39 W · 120 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…c66bbacked No1c943.59$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fa8…d94fbacked No59c849.57$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick48cpaid-52.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x153b…68ddbacked No24c799.99$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1962133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+93%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed No17c700$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.53023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick33cpaid-34.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes70c677.32$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.2137533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No50c649.9$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.958143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x208e…dfd0backed No12c623.46$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No3c569.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8337740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked No59c526.41$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.36911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick27cpaid-70.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No34c500$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17015238.8%59 W · 93 L-13.5wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-27.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No14c500$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712847.7%22 W · 262 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-40.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes40c499.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.9915646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f32…d3fbbacked No67c448.4$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+44.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No53c444.35$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.045451.9%28 W · 26 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No24c436.59$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10599629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcc9d…4cc1backed Yes68c425.99$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.982065%13 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+15.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e31…18fabacked Yes71c424.51$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.783100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No25c409.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.3530319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x008f…3104backed No49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-66.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84dd…8701backed No60c403.6$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.283259.4%19 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ef0…4cdcbacked No50c402$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x23c0…564cbacked No26c389.4$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.72231.8%7 W · 15 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe486…2d23backed Yes79c381.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.67540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-47.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes66c381.09$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.9614843.2%64 W · 84 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e2…e599backed No59c370$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.656634.8%23 W · 43 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7012…4035backed Yes41c369.38$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.931136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed No13c360.8$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.683312.1%4 W · 29 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick27cpaid-74.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x73de…c4fabacked Yes66c334$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.56850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed No44c320.45$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.68547.1%40 W · 45 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No30c310.15$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.758646.5%40 W · 46 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccb…5124backed No45c309.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75c…f6c2backed No58c306.6$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.836442.2%27 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No30c306.38$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.971,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed Yes68c300$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes35c286.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.578150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a2…9981backed No43c256.07$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked No5c250$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes74c248.08$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.841338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-40.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No4c245$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1017713%23 W · 154 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes43c240.46$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.064654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d5…2e07backed Yes77c229.42$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.271353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc8d…84bcbacked Yes69c220.43$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.331861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+21.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3799…cd36backed No47c220$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.4714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick49cpaid-76.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52f8…08f8backed No58c219.45$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.7410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b8…c770backed No6c208.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No21c206.8$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.872326.1%6 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick37cpaid-41.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed No31c202.61$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.314839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e09…c03abacked No53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1061752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed No22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449248.9%45 W · 47 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x560b…d761backed No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No10c199.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204022.5%9 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90e9…de83backed No57c180$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.62437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed No42c167.83$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.495922%13 W · 46 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-35.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No65c159.57$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.724736.2%17 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf386…c335backed No65c153.63$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.06250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No58c150$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874351.2%22 W · 21 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+10.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked No34c150$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-29.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No42c144.83$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.668741.4%36 W · 51 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No40c140.32$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1325241.7%105 W · 147 L-17.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00ea…f801backed Yes26c133.65$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.9728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbe7…9563backed Yes78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-40%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f0d…da48backed No61c118.84$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.492339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+56.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4921…d8e8backed No43c116.28$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes51c115.87$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.783321.2%7 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef8…1d13backed Yes42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-9.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x02b5…ab51backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401020%2 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-65.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3914…51d7backed No55c96.2$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.252462.5%15 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick59cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae4…c085backed No41c91.62$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.5258%2 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70fa…196dbacked No59c90$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x08f0…4ca4backed Yes67c86.64$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.191947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked No46c86.44$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0419435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc12…7c4fbacked No12c86$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3290%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6196…ad02backed Yes59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb7…f16dbacked No24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea2d…bcf7backed Yes60c83.33$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.33250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes67c82.75$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.5428636.7%105 W · 181 L-10.6wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb274…79dfbacked No44c79.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-36.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No37c72$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6617021.2%36 W · 134 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef9b…7606backed Yes70c70$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212657.7%15 W · 11 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+21.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde0b…b4a7backed No47c66.95$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…c1b8backed Yes68c66$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89e7…0ffabacked No48c62.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302948.3%14 W · 15 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick57cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1572…d2d8backed Yes44c57.24$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.864100%4 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+161.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c9a…f3ffbacked Yes39c54.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+28.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf289…3601backed Yes42c54.51$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+19%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x724d…a7cfbacked No59c51.61$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.45955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.