Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Patrick Pizzella for Labor Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6cccd68bbbaa6769d5fac2b2d1ac698651a29eff072367db6a05f45b6f4d1522
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,762
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,395
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,762 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 8c | 2,823$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.14 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 8c | 1,842$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.98 | 124 | 4.8%6 W · 118 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 25c | 1,818$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.98 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 75c | 1,754$1,323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.4 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed Yes | 7c | 1,544$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.11 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,270$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,155$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 8c | 700$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 3c | 574.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 14c | 572.01$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.23 | 125 | 31.2%39 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 8c | 467.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.99 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -69%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 5c | 333$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fd…34ccbacked Yes | 19c | 199.46$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed Yes | 8c | 176$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 17c | 166.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 98 | 29.6%29 W · 69 L | -4.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 11c | 160$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 24c | 120$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5d…a0f9backed Yes | 9c | 117.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7904…3893backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1671…c819backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Patrick Pizzella for Labor Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Andrew Puzder for Labor Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Brandon Williams for Labor Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bryan Slater for Labor Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Lori Chavez-DeRemer for Labor Secretary?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.