Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump nominate Lori Chavez-DeRemer for Labor Secretary?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8267c25cd201620dc15363268f33b5f4dc504f3a6c6668da88475c19345621c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,914
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,914 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 2c | 12,090$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.3 | 223 | 47.5%106 W · 117 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 41c | 446.81$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.46 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 29c | 350.02$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.51 | 355 | 19.7%70 W · 285 L | -16.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…c16abacked Yes | 47c | 350$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 284$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.85 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 29c | 283.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.52 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc658…b784backed Yes | 22c | 283.83$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.39 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e4…b676backed Yes | 42c | 281.68$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.17 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 57c | 273.94$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x413b…fb4bbacked Yes | 30c | 209$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 48c | 205.75$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | +9.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 53c | 165.01$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.05 | 412 | 38.8%160 W · 252 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 56c | 142.2$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 57c | 140.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.24 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 286 | 36.7%105 W · 181 L | -10.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 37c | 131.87$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9780…6255backed No | 46c | 127.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -79.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd592…9ed9backed No | 57c | 106$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 49c | 55.01$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 57c | 42.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump nominate Lori Chavez-DeRemer for Labor Secretary?this page
- Will Trump nominate Andrew Puzder for Labor Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Brandon Williams for Labor Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Bryan Slater for Labor Secretary?No won
- Will Trump nominate Patrick Pizzella for Labor Secretary?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.