TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Putin remain President of Russia through June?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,098,392
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$891,306

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,098,392 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbcee…dd25backed No1c200,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x253d…3307backed No0c169,078$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.022850%14 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e6e…99eabacked No0c24,878$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x049d…0f3fbacked No3c20,901$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed No1c19,309$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.59651.5%1 W · 64 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a66…9bc0backed No4c12,101$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.1240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc9a…417dbacked No0c11,375$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8967…1e9bbacked No6c11,207$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No1c10,748$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.194533.3%15 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7cfe…0342backed No0c10,739$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12b2…0099backed No0c10,735$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c10,595$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.4713910.8%15 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-72.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd27…ce56backed No0c9,183$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6779…0400backed No1c9,144$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x005f…b5aebacked No0c8,803$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No7c7,805$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.142634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-46.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0e4…3b89backed No1c6,971$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x300d…a2b3backed No0c6,673$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95a4…1b1cbacked No2c6,419$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.3920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked No0c5,806$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26230%0 W · 23 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7524…2149backed No8c5,768$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3e1…52bbbacked No0c3,927$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f8e…6a53backed No8c3,645$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.72911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.12per pick23cpaid-75%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No4c3,425$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.599037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-25.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa012…48bfbacked No1c3,317$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3f6…d1d8backed No1c3,030$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-58.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf036…9c9fbacked No5c2,767$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ccc…a831backed No7c2,715$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+56.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8bb…fb35backed No1c2,667$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed No7c2,606$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.724139%16 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8674…3219backed No1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No8c2,308$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.061770.6%12 W · 5 L+5.3wins+0.31per pick39cpaid+44.9%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xd187…399cbacked No1c2,228$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1c7…2ef5backed No1c2,223$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8558…d6c9backed No3c2,009$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52180%0 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked No8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb702…e291backed No7c2,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd056…054fbacked No6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3d85…19cfbacked No1c1,846$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.46520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-43.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f23…c7d0backed No7c1,500$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1051315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-79.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x543e…8253backed No7c1,429$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e63…9313backed No4c1,352$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.58425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-19.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No3c1,348$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.01712.8%2 W · 69 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…054cbacked No1c1,347$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6e…8665backed No6c1,304$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed No9c1,302$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.182420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf555…b2d5backed No1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.52910.3%3 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-64.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x688e…e4f2backed No1c1,207$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed No4c1,070$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401520%3 W · 12 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x16d5…f5aebacked No3c1,020$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcca…aebabacked No1c1,018$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-63.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77ec…4efbbacked No1c1,017$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x883c…f8c2backed No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked No1c1,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8ab…c99abacked No6c999.98$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0d…fec9backed No7c999.93$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7060%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3b2…4e48backed No7c999.86$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.99100%0 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1505…ec9cbacked No4c971.56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79e3…9136backed No9c868.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db3…77ccbacked No8c851.39$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.71110%0 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdb53…4502backed No4c844.14$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed No6c800$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.971723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed No7c790.11$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3190%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x360c…123ebacked No3c744.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.311931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd757…94aabacked No5c720.9$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.163630.6%11 W · 25 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e46…9800backed No4c716.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16e0…e891backed No1c673.33$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c666.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.695327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1755…94c7backed No4c627.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.04425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-45.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a1c…d147backed No8c625$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56f8…4910backed No4c560.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-61%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3829…3633backed No9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86a5…5ac2backed No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4090%0 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xebb4…494cbacked No8c500$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x351c…7648backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97a2…6becbacked No8c459.63$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.51540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4818…bf0bbacked No9c448.94$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.41526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-33.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf409…e0fabacked No4c446.75$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0250%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe29…3c2abacked No2c430.95$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No6c383.98$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.96922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid-58.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked No4c375.85$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4470%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9048…6fddbacked No8c375$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb943…777dbacked No8c369.54$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.09333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-47%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcc…f59cbacked No5c344.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad4f…37ecbacked No9c333.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed No7c300$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…0978backed No5c298.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.931250%6 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-30.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2070%0 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8f…f9e9backed No8c236.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick28cpaid+11.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182433.3%8 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffd2…d7aebacked No5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104214.3%6 W · 36 L-4.4wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-65.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xaaf5…adbebacked No9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f2…7851backed No7c199.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-48.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0067…ee26backed No8c183.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.67366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1841…c63dbacked No9c166.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf321…a368backed No8c150$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-59.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddb…7a9bbacked No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b8…dfaebacked No8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.