Movies · resolved market
'Speak No Evil' grosses >$13m opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fcc02f6fc3cce3b7377f2c187882ab30510b18cfda5e43710df2cd575cf23c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,896
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,454
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,896 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dfd…e841backed Yes | 3c | 3,400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 8c | 900.65$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.65 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…a83cbacked No | 46c | 890.39$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.58 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 28c | 762.54$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.76 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfac6…6c64backed Yes | 64c | 692.18$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.72 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed No | 38c | 649.99$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.99 | 78 | 39.7%31 W · 47 L | +8.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…af05backed No | 43c | 599.96$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.98 | 131 | 50.4%66 W · 65 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda29…a628backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4d…4a91backed Yes | 62c | 499.99$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked No | 60c | 404.64$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.13 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes | 33c | 380.47$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b48…5c6cbacked Yes | 3c | 366.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…f76cbacked Yes | 12c | 365.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 54c | 347$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.88 | 191 | 33%63 W · 128 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…3aecbacked Yes | 4c | 308.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b27…ed84backed No | 73c | 300.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x308a…17e8backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c85…9e34backed No | 37c | 271.04$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.04 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -84.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed Yes | 62c | 257.45$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 64c | 256.57$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.29 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba73…0cfdbacked No | 37c | 255.52$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.98 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +9.6wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5526…5f5cbacked No | 51c | 249.67$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 46c | 242$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked No | 41c | 227.8$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 60c | 207.35$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +161.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 62c | 178.36$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Yes | 43c | 155.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.62 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…a88dbacked No | 62c | 152.26$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…0c16backed Yes | 13c | 140.03$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…4ab8backed Yes | 75c | 139.4$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 55c | 134.41$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 64c | 120.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 57c | 112.33$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d10…daebbacked Yes | 43c | 109.3$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfce1…e2b9backed Yes | 43c | 106.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5574…6424backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d3…44f9backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x240e…e8aabacked Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7f…b1d4backed Yes | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87bb…f672backed No | 61c | 98.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa6…16f9backed No | 61c | 93.12$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.38 | 150 | 54.7%82 W · 68 L | +30.5wins | +0.20per pick | 34cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa099…d81fbacked No | 64c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -65%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…7571backed No | 59c | 84.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -15%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 16c | 67.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0770…6e0dbacked Yes | 75c | 66.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 60c | 63.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb231…99a4backed Yes | 41c | 59.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3573…b6f9backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fdd…0b07backed Yes | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 41c | 49.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef0…f1a9backed Yes | 42c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 37.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 59c | 29.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f1…1ebdbacked No | 59c | 20.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.34 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb6a…63d3backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2c…55cfbacked Yes | 72c | 15.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.