Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Siversk before December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86fad715b3b6b73709bf402b7182696ca5760cd7353b8374733890f2b8daf37d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $217,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $234,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 7c | 97,699$6,493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,493.22 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 4c | 8,713$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.7 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed Yes | 4c | 6,460$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.4 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +85%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6e…be2cbacked No | 76c | 2,850$2,172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe384…bc6bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,600$542 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a66…9051backed Yes | 16c | 2,502$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…eed3backed Yes | 34c | 2,100$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.93 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 13c | 1,702$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.75 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,585$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07a6…2e31backed No | 77c | 1,576$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca91…d2cabacked Yes | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81f…5c9fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,451$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 11c | 1,329$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eaa…7d99backed Yes | 14c | 1,322$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.43 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bc…dc2dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,250$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 6c | 1,107$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3a…5296backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3627…68e4backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…4d5bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7257…674bbacked Yes | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…af98backed Yes | 22c | 999.99$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…4032backed No | 63c | 975.59$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.64 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 77c | 926.32$714 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.63 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 13c | 921$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.63 | 20 | 0%0 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…dd1ebacked Yes | 11c | 868.82$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0c…02a5backed Yes | 21c | 760$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 711.69$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…4fbebacked Yes | 20c | 669.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…fa5cbacked Yes | 9c | 479$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 4c | 406$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 56 | 5.4%3 W · 53 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a2…444cbacked Yes | 15c | 387.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe44f…41e4backed Yes | 4c | 380.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 69c | 375.78$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.79 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…168fbacked Yes | 6c | 357.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd9…c512backed Yes | 13c | 350$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…8a3cbacked Yes | 16c | 339.38$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…e0c9backed Yes | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf1…e4c7backed Yes | 14c | 287.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a73…adf0backed Yes | 36c | 230$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf631…e20fbacked Yes | 25c | 198.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d2…4f4bbacked Yes | 31c | 187.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7390…9160backed Yes | 13c | 169.78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae6…5604backed Yes | 12c | 140$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee2e…6d28backed Yes | 15c | 138.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b7…ee3cbacked No | 76c | 134.96$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcea…e78bbacked No | 61c | 134.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa5…b2f6backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -5.7wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…b973backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x826e…eea9backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f71…421ebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ba…a286backed Yes | 13c | 86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…994dbacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b9…6048backed No | 75c | 67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 141 | 50.4%71 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ec…9a6bbacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6264…9937backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.1wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6c…8f71backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a71…3c62backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +67%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.