Middle East · resolved market
Israel military response against Iran today?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b89400b21839d9615d424d7dbb55bfc7144f3def763b877c1a25d3506d3357c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85ed…3d0fbacked Yes | 10c | 4,678$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.51 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a71…954bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 33 | 12.1%4 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…cdf3backed Yes | 1c | 1,495$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 11c | 1,480$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.79 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6797…7697backed Yes | 17c | 999.98$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a36dbacked Yes | 8c | 800$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7108…7492backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 4c | 499.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…99dbbacked Yes | 4c | 469.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2013…0091backed Yes | 43c | 468.51$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde02…02a1backed Yes | 12c | 400$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Yes | 7c | 355$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7e…cff0backed Yes | 18c | 326.37$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…8729backed Yes | 13c | 304.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…cdc9backed Yes | 14c | 214.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…1e9cbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 11c | 168.54$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 17c | 141.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.62 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 11c | 131.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…396fbacked No | 73c | 119.79$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.