Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2a0e250986968308950312a585989606afeab3cd8653a76eb7e4c85a5af044e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,392
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,727
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,392 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 17c | 8,242$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.29 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 20c | 7,778$1,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,517.84 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 21c | 5,943$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 20c | 3,933$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.9 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 78c | 1,362$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.81 | 91 | 44%40 W · 51 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 17c | 1,272$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 18c | 896.93$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 18c | 633.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 28c | 541$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…0fe9backed Yes | 17c | 499$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.23 | 104 | 33.7%35 W · 69 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 14c | 480.61$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 69c | 421.28$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 29c | 340.16$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 17c | 320.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.27 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 16c | 300$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 33c | 299.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 22c | 289.28$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.79 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 16c | 288.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b08…8581backed Yes | 17c | 185.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 15c | 171.26$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…c284backed Yes | 23c | 158.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf037…c690backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…9862backed No | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked No | 75c | 132.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 15c | 131$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 79c | 126$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 75c | 120.41$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 18c | 112.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 13c | 110.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 77c | 101.74$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 15c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…959cbacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 95.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7885…eeaebacked Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 20c | 69.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 21c | 69.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 78c | 67.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 67.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 18c | 63.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 77c | 42$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.66 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 77c | 18.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 17.62$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in April?this page
- Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?Yes won
- Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.