Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02b89b2b3975a1c5416e8e9cc8d54d18186976ab1c1a3ca4f78a67e065f4058a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,682
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $69,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,682 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Yes | 16c | 13,299$2,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,064.68 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bac…8684backed Yes | 10c | 10,091$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$974.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 6c | 7,167$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.01 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ac…84f3backed Yes | 9c | 2,746$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 4c | 2,035$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed Yes | 12c | 1,037$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 5c | 835.16$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 819.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed Yes | 10c | 670.65$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 3c | 600$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 15c | 510.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.19 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…88edbacked Yes | 12c | 494.2$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 5c | 473.3$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 64 | 29.7%19 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…8a10backed Yes | 6c | 471.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 470.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.73 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 6c | 454.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 5c | 400.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…6110backed Yes | 6c | 363.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1992…78d0backed Yes | 10c | 341$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0016…77b1backed Yes | 8c | 204.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes | 7c | 187$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x177a…c284backed Yes | 10c | 156.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbbb…a7c7backed Yes | 7c | 152$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 14c | 142.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf9…2a15backed Yes | 15c | 132.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 20cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf037…c690backed Yes | 9c | 120.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7984…638abacked Yes | 14c | 108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed Yes | 13c | 105.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 102$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 140 | 24.3%34 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will egg prices be between $5.75 and $6.00 in April?this page
- Will egg prices be between $4.75 and $5.00 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?Yes won
- Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $5.50 and $5.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be between $6.00 and $6.25 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April?No won
- Will egg prices be more than $6.25 in April?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.