Chess · resolved market
Will Game 12 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9aa3b21f8dff26c546cd89e19576f1419fec84049424f2051f14eb995e1f2ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $56,471
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 69c | 13,350$9,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,207 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 34c | 9,909$3,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,540.03 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 32c | 8,473$2,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,753.39 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 2c | 3,790$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.75 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed No | 35c | 3,673$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,369.74 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b7…9360backed Yes | 66c | 2,365$1,556 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…ba20backed Yes | 66c | 1,978$1,296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,296 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 14c | 1,504$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.76 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked No | 33c | 1,000$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 47c | 803$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.98 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 41c | 800$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked No | 71c | 786.76$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.85 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed No | 34c | 584.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.63 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 59c | 552.21$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.53 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes | 66c | 509.3$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.95 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked No | 77c | 504.59$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.55 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 50c | 503.84$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.11 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…2003backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1b…c92fbacked No | 38c | 500$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb3…416bbacked Yes | 69c | 472.74$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…9606backed Yes | 65c | 461.43$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602b…c2c0backed Yes | 64c | 424.23$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 61c | 416.67$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.12 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes | 32c | 408.85$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 355.94$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.21 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4755…20fdbacked No | 38c | 350$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +39%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95f…1a57backed Yes | 19c | 350$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.5 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a6…5ceebacked Yes | 67c | 329.22$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 30c | 299.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 53c | 271.33$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed No | 70c | 244.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.95 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…16ccbacked No | 37c | 237.15$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +172.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20bf…c9debacked Yes | 65c | 235.25$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked Yes | 67c | 225$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.75 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked No | 31c | 200$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 10c | 197.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…52c7backed No | 43c | 165$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…de9ebacked Yes | 35c | 160$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x393f…4081backed Yes | 64c | 155.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38c…3ee7backed No | 39c | 152.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…1c9ebacked Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…ea2cbacked Yes | 67c | 140$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 66c | 130.92$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.51 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f2…710fbacked No | 45c | 125.4$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…d106backed No | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…7ed3backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…c159backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…d389backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 61c | 99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…3ffcbacked Yes | 67c | 97.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…3348backed No | 34c | 97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69db…602dbacked No | 35c | 90$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 32cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04f4…2460backed No | 34c | 88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6183…af63backed No | 33c | 78.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 67c | 78.29$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2e…6856backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.26per pick | 39cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked No | 34c | 66.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 44c | 65.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa7db…3199backed No | 80c | 62.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0a…2bbdbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 53.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.66 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d5…c991backed Yes | 39c | 50.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31bc…7259backed No | 65c | 50.6$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf842…682dbacked No | 38c | 47.86$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…e83ebacked No | 67c | 45.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb337…5589backed Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed No | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe515…1398backed Yes | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed No | 33c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed Yes | 67c | 39.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…ebb6backed Yes | 34c | 38.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cd…6d22backed No | 53c | 38.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ce…d575backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…4746backed Yes | 63c | 33.03$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5dc…35f9backed No | 36c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf033…9ea3backed Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe1…aa4abacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…0fcabacked No | 75c | 16.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Game 12 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?Yes won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.