Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x467e553e6fb7747625b95a6df808bb1d7e4f5f0e1162ddd962319233d97d5829
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 25c | 1,925$484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.92 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64ad…3050backed Yes | 35c | 1,745$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.4 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 18c | 1,406$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,148.66 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed No | 2c | 1,374$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…f0b6backed Yes | 75c | 1,342$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.61 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 1,067$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.44 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked No | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 31c | 975.3$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.01 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc201…1c9ebacked No | 7c | 900$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…3a31backed Yes | 15c | 785.96$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.07 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…c893backed Yes | 43c | 733.45$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +204.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 48c | 728.58$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.03 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed Yes | 71c | 705$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Yes | 28c | 678$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 18c | 509.41$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.41 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 27c | 504.33$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.85 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.68per pick | 33cpaid | +333.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed No | 16c | 499.99$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…2003backed No | 6c | 499.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 39c | 444.05$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.7 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 9c | 400$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 54c | 290$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.1 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…b55dbacked Yes | 18c | 282.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.43per pick | 37cpaid | +132%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 75c | 274.99$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.79 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce1…c160backed Yes | 24c | 270$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked No | 5c | 266.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +407.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd767…50bebacked Yes | 66c | 237.23$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db1…7ed3backed Yes | 55c | 228.21$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…b299backed Yes | 22c | 224.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc725…34e7backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30b4…8b72backed No | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555f…012bbacked Yes | 20c | 196.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x372b…c159backed Yes | 65c | 179.28$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed Yes | 49c | 172.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 10c | 168.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 75c | 163.86$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ce…c3abbacked Yes | 75c | 155.91$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.98 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab71…6f34backed Yes | 76c | 152.76$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 17c | 123.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.89 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2836…a0cdbacked Yes | 78c | 119.26$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59a2…f487backed Yes | 35c | 110.71$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf892…23a5backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…3236backed Yes | 22c | 97.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf89d…eacfbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf59c…115bbacked Yes | 24c | 92.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +313.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf0…de9ebacked Yes | 61c | 92.34$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 27c | 90.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.91 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…58d8backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…c9bebacked Yes | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 78c | 70.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…8a16backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d4d…8e60backed Yes | 66c | 54.39$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x054b…8477backed Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0bf…14cfbacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…13a9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 35c | 48.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.57 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…2c48backed Yes | 30c | 38.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.68 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4f…f206backed No | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 80c | 28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 56c | 18.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf14…daf6backed Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Game 12 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.