Chess · resolved market
Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69bc9d603f0b64cc827ec93b7c2148c37aa3b7379d5d907e169b647f2d7d5044
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,019
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 0c | 15,291$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e80…9eadbacked Yes | 7c | 2,405$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.75 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 12c | 2,253$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.62 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…3d31backed Yes | 4c | 1,250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 6c | 1,165$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 12c | 1,062$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.18 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56d4…b609backed Yes | 5c | 1,040$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d85…19cfbacked Yes | 11c | 900$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked Yes | 15c | 634.83$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec75…8786backed Yes | 16c | 627.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 53 | 24.5%13 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…0bdbbacked Yes | 4c | 621.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +407.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 11c | 541.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 18c | 393.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.12 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…d389backed Yes | 9c | 332.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5380…9592backed Yes | 19c | 270.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4166…3236backed Yes | 16c | 189.93$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x279a…715cbacked Yes | 7c | 170.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +149.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…14cebacked Yes | 16c | 155.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd767…50bebacked Yes | 9c | 130.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40e…53ddbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +79.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…6034backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5952…4a09backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…8d61backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Ding Liren win Game 12 of the World Chess Championship?Yes won
- Will Game 12 of the World Chess Championship end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.