Weather · resolved market
Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b02d64879d44fa91b0026d431c131f6ea8798e1cf94e2421e7402975abd0777
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,810
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,810 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 15c | 10,579$1,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,620.79 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 4c | 4,716$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.39 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 54c | 4,031$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,162.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes | 5c | 3,304$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 0c | 2,655$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 42c | 2,371$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.32 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,240$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.11 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0d…38a1backed Yes | 19c | 1,625$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed Yes | 9c | 1,608$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.91 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 49c | 1,209$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.38 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x752e…81c4backed Yes | 58c | 733.98$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.04 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 460.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 16c | 369.74$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 41c | 344$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.03 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked Yes | 31c | 331.07$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.43 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf65…56f5backed Yes | 11c | 330.79$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b8…762dbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Yes | 42c | 270$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3747…bd4bbacked Yes | 11c | 250.08$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed Yes | 65c | 149.35$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 44c | 136$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 44c | 135.64$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 73c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6116…f247backed Yes | 48c | 80$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…287cbacked Yes | 64c | 71.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…4e96backed Yes | 45c | 69.34$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 24c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…2179backed No | 43c | 60.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca5…eccabacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 24.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?this page
- Will there be less than 11 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
- Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.