Weather · resolved market
Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc38b041dac04feb5136d909c1b5e4912f538e851cd14eac48d2af5f95a07e6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $94,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,003
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 19c | 10,012$1,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,918.06 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c4…bfdebacked No | 5c | 3,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Yes | 33c | 2,500$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +77.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x12c0…7bd8backed No | 4c | 2,500$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 68c | 2,279$1,542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f6…3cd9backed No | 21c | 2,227$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…8ee7backed Yes | 40c | 1,440$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.4 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 23cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 45c | 1,200$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 36c | 750$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…ce61backed Yes | 60c | 640.15$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.88 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9411…271cbacked Yes | 61c | 615$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc462…5e7abacked No | 62c | 500$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 29c | 490.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…6514backed Yes | 56c | 479.39$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.79 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes | 47c | 425.66$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.66 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 28cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Yes | 45c | 264.82$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x859a…0fc9backed Yes | 36c | 251.54$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked No | 63c | 247.71$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.01 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 16c | 240$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 96 | 32.3%31 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda2f…baccbacked No | 30c | 215.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.34 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d53…ca87backed Yes | 34c | 204.27$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa136…2965backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked Yes | 55c | 150$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 56c | 145$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 13c | 133.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e2…25f7backed No | 15c | 109.15$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 11c | 101.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…8805backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfb…48a2backed No | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914a…da27backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67b5…9f1ebacked Yes | 31c | 78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da9…1dd2backed Yes | 45c | 76.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed No | 17c | 60.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8867…5421backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25de…7efdbacked No | 33c | 49.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…287cbacked No | 54c | 49.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…15b7backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 43cpaid | +135.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b36…acebbacked Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc4…61febacked Yes | 54c | 36.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df1…6ec8backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c8…fc4cbacked Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be more than 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?this page
- Will there be between 11 and 14 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
- Will there be less than 11 named storms during Atlantic Hurricane Season?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.