Chess · resolved market
Will Ding Liren win game 6 of the World Chess Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf83eedb3deb4910b5840560ed54569186f2d9447d14a7f4f696c540120e4c22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,582
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,582 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6c76…f344backed Yes | 6c | 3,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,655$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.46 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 20c | 2,222$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.4 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,155$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.53 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 18c | 1,131$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.12 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ea…97f1backed Yes | 24c | 1,002$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…4805backed Yes | 12c | 690$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…2486backed Yes | 27c | 612.89$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +228.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf8a…68fabacked Yes | 12c | 559.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.6 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -90.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a64…0144backed Yes | 19c | 513.73$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7626…d258backed Yes | 19c | 506.51$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…3d8abacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ad…0759backed Yes | 20c | 395.51$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed Yes | 20c | 380.65$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.13 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed Yes | 20c | 337.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63b4…94ddbacked Yes | 32c | 336.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.27 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1534…044dbacked Yes | 22c | 307.22$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.59 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed Yes | 20c | 270.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602b…c2c0backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfef3…2ef0backed Yes | 19c | 220.69$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 6c | 217.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +175.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes | 18c | 188$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed Yes | 24c | 168.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…bdadbacked Yes | 21c | 166.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 19c | 130$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c23…4c2cbacked Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 27c | 129.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169b…30c9backed Yes | 49c | 127.57$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc648…c3aabacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd26…6310backed Yes | 19c | 110$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdb…692abacked Yes | 29c | 106.41$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef7…3b22backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 21c | 93.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x48ae…2324backed Yes | 23c | 87.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0809…d818backed Yes | 18c | 78.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1a4backed Yes | 21c | 65.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e04…7a4fbacked Yes | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…b222backed Yes | 20c | 59.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712c…de39backed Yes | 24c | 59.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked No | 72c | 55.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…8cedbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…f8c4backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…5bbcbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbed…13a9backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb158…594bbacked Yes | 33c | 34.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…53b3backed Yes | 35c | 31.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Ding Liren win game 6 of the World Chess Championship?this page
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 6 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will game 6 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.