Chess · resolved market
Will game 6 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48d592d96e49f7b5ab094d28f4eab49e37b05ba592c08fb33d7f96c2265909c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,723
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 17c | 3,340$571 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.15 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 66c | 3,029$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029.99 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd667…9a78backed No | 33c | 2,926$962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$962.42 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Yes | 70c | 1,227$861 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.33 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 67c | 1,208$813 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.63 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94e5…6cfebacked Yes | 67c | 1,118$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.05 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed No | 33c | 1,103$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked No | 31c | 1,034$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.56 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x369f…1345backed No | 37c | 1,024$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x091f…d1b2backed No | 33c | 859.41$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…dc0fbacked Yes | 68c | 844.01$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.1 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b37…c799backed No | 11c | 712.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…eb03backed No | 5c | 699.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfda…bedebacked Yes | 66c | 655.86$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.8 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +148.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6597…53b3backed No | 31c | 602.78$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.03 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 33c | 409.54$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.07 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 41cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e54…c8ccbacked Yes | 68c | 400$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…a3afbacked Yes | 71c | 358.16$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602b…c2c0backed Yes | 64c | 335$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 32c | 314.95$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked No | 34c | 300.12$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +98.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Yes | 76c | 299.48$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b6…9b6abacked No | 7c | 258.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…e5d9backed No | 37c | 255.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 63c | 214.92$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ceb…0c87backed Yes | 71c | 211.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f6…3724backed Yes | 62c | 210.7$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked No | 37c | 187.18$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x956b…ebb6backed Yes | 69c | 173.92$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc0…6872backed No | 31c | 172.3$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +120.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31d0…d03cbacked No | 35c | 164.83$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe97b…b2eabacked Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc1b…f4adbacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0c…af0ebacked No | 27c | 147.54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 65c | 128.68$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 16c | 124.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd9…b9bcbacked No | 45c | 111.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab5d…a21bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…dee6backed Yes | 57c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3a…4d6ebacked No | 23c | 85.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…baf2backed Yes | 60c | 82.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c0…9ab1backed No | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8d…ce3abacked Yes | 65c | 80$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 17c | 78.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 60c | 77.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.81 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c9…e83ebacked No | 38c | 69.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 46c | 64.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…3d8abacked Yes | 75c | 52.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4440…5f67backed Yes | 66c | 50.66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaef…6234backed Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd22…2df2backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd818…4c9fbacked No | 29c | 44.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 35c | 42.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd160…8a16backed Yes | 74c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2065…9799backed No | 40c | 30.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +210.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed6…58b9backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e67…d472backed No | 39c | 26.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +387.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb59f…cd73backed Yes | 71c | 21.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bdd…bc9dbacked No | 50c | 20.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe46…57d1backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…c789backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6aad…6130backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +195.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…23dabacked Yes | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will game 6 of the World Chess Championship be a draw?this page
- Will Ding Liren win game 6 of the World Chess Championship?No won
- Will Gukesh Dommaraju win game 6 of the World Chess Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.