Chess · resolved market

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x781b006ede44195c58fdb7b90828b02dcb6721036e6eaf9603489edcfd7cb479

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 30, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $132,378
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,633

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,378 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x455e…bcc3backed Yes	4c	20,295$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$781.12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5246…32a6backed Yes	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70c7…246fbacked Yes	1c	6,576$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.26	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	18cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a5…2da4backed Yes	6c	2,882$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186.89	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	33cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes	3c	2,500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	4c	2,001$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.39	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	1,875$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.81	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb321…5bc3backed Yes	6c	1,671$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes	2c	1,372$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.05	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-78%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes	6c	1,009$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56d4…b609backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes	5c	800$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5b0…1f4bbacked Yes	5c	780.53$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	20cpaid	-79%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6704…baa4backed Yes	4c	770.25$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	37cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes	4c	739$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.26	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes	2c	727$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.15per pick	13cpaid	+152.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes	5c	700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes	2c	691.44$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.27	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-52.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes	3c	642.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes	4c	611.95$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.51	68	20.6%14 W · 54 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1cf…9656backed Yes	6c	580$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.4	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes	4c	436.86$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.08	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-82.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes	5c	361.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb59f…cd73backed Yes	4c	349.07$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.08per pick	29cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e2b…70ebbacked Yes	5c	338.21$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.24	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-28.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1ab3…9f4dbacked Yes	4c	285.77$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes	7c	270$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.35	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c4f…965cbacked Yes	4c	260$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-83.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x860a…2e92backed Yes	4c	250.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x480a…6bf8backed Yes	5c	238.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.57	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3355…e375backed Yes	5c	215$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeba1…8598backed Yes	6c	156.25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event