Chess · resolved market

Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x733e9395092f6c77ffc9104c474f07adbcb011e2eff59f346789c4f7a3881ce0

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 31, 2024, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $157,016
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $81,496

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $157,016 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Chess
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3021…a229backed Yes	0c	49,009$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.01	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes	4c	12,907$554 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.91	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes	1c	6,529$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.53	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x455e…bcc3backed Yes	5c	6,087$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.75	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes	3c	2,890$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.99	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-78%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	1c	2,401$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes	3c	2,283$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.48	68	20.6%14 W · 54 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	1c	2,089$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.54	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes	4c	2,000$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.46	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e30…1e50backed Yes	2c	1,283$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.06	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.12per pick	39cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2499…fed3backed Yes	1c	1,250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.76	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes	4c	1,240$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	6cpaid	+288.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ea6…9545backed Yes	8c	1,080$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.63	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbc…bb1abacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	13%3 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes	2c	999.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	32.5%13 W · 27 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes	1c	999.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df8…5907backed Yes	7c	918.53$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.74	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f5e…ff7cbacked Yes	2c	896.32$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes	2c	800$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ab3…9f4dbacked Yes	5c	603.27$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.26	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-82.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-66.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d34…17e8backed Yes	9c	495.73$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.4	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	411.79$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.55	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes	4c	399.89$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06dc…af59backed Yes	4c	358.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56e3…9f90backed Yes	4c	300.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38ef…de5dbacked Yes	5c	300$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.39	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-83.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes	8c	173.65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb04…8b8abacked Yes	9c	110.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+264.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fe9…8660backed Yes	14c	84.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event