Chess · resolved market
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a044881137b2ec058392a87ab57c1bc22705ee5c385d726e4400d9a7f2f5c65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $167,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $167,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd19c…f16bbacked Yes | 15c | 22,088$3,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,225.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ea6…9545backed Yes | 9c | 13,723$1,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,272.96 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 0c | 10,976$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ae…e58abacked Yes | 10c | 9,661$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a25…2fa6backed Yes | 4c | 8,446$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.23 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ac…a261backed Yes | 2c | 5,473$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 2c | 4,282$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.22 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes | 6c | 4,035$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.27 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b67…584fbacked Yes | 4c | 3,506$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…21bbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,731$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes | 9c | 1,664$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.54 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573d…3507backed Yes | 5c | 1,571$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 8c | 1,517$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc30a…1a0dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,500$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…ff7cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,278$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.06 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e21…1751backed Yes | 14c | 1,252$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 4c | 1,137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 12c | 1,100$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…cc22backed Yes | 8c | 998.09$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.54 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes | 5c | 981.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 68 | 20.6%14 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 963.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 110 | 11.8%13 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 5c | 900$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…1928backed Yes | 8c | 750$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…d9cabacked Yes | 9c | 710$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbb…dc2bbacked Yes | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d34…17e8backed Yes | 6c | 646.46$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f83…6cd9backed Yes | 9c | 640$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.76 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24d1…de85backed Yes | 8c | 624.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…de5dbacked Yes | 14c | 568$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.99 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf89e…1783backed Yes | 5c | 555.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 14c | 550.92$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.3 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 10c | 510$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7414…8e95backed Yes | 3c | 499.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6753…7340backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40c…8192backed Yes | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 4c | 361$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +152.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 5c | 350$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 13c | 344.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba1…8598backed Yes | 8c | 313.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb538…d3a6backed Yes | 9c | 302.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed Yes | 9c | 300.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffe…be6fbacked Yes | 8c | 235.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 9c | 233.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +288.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes | 9c | 219.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -12.3wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…e773backed Yes | 8c | 203.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab3…9f4dbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes | 11c | 174.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed Yes | 12c | 163.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3355…e375backed Yes | 8c | 152.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes | 14c | 147.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…15d0backed Yes | 8c | 138$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…11c7backed Yes | 15c | 133.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed Yes | 12c | 120.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d1…dee6backed Yes | 14c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bf…d806backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…7021backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 15c | 93.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8b…a211backed Yes | 12c | 93.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…6bf8backed Yes | 14c | 73.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?this page
- Will Alexander Grischuk win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Alireza Firouzja win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Arjun Erigaisi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Ben Finegold win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Daniel Naroditsky win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Daniil Dubov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Hans Niemann win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Ian Nepomniachtchi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Jan-Krzysztof Duda win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Levon Aronian win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Olexandr Bortnyk win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Rameshbabu Praggnanandhaa win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Volodar Murzin win the 2024 World Blitz Championship? No won
- Will Wei Yi win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will Wesley So win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?No won
- Will another person win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.