TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Volodar Murzin win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,042
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,128

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,042 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1ea6…9545backed Yes4c16,000$640 inLost-$64090%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ae…e58abacked Yes5c8,917$450 inLost-$45040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…e4a7backed Yes1c6,569$46 inLost-$46.16119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-83.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes4c3,861$154 inLost-$153.842917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04f4…2460backed Yes2c2,927$60 inLost-$59.63540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+25.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf89e…1783backed Yes3c2,530$65 inLost-$65100%0 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes5c1,592$74 inLost-$73.8180%0 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed Yes5c1,475$79 inLost-$79.421816.7%3 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick10cpaid+5,582.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecc4…9fc3backed Yes1c1,295$17 inLost-$16.8380%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes3c1,267$38 inLost-$38.074032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9816…cc22backed Yes3c1,239$35 inLost-$35.332010%2 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,116$18 inLost-$17.7211011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes2c1,056$25 inLost-$25.181020%2 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+288.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd30…d288backed Yes4c1,056$45 inLost-$45.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24d1…de85backed Yes3c1,001$35 inLost-$35425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-58.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd69…a2e1backed Yes3c1,000$31 inLost-$30.51346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-29.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost-$153116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xded5…d9cabacked Yes3c1,000$33 inLost-$334010%4 W · 36 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes1c946.61$13 inLost-$12.84450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a8…1b38backed Yes3c907.79$25 inLost-$25650%3 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c4f…965cbacked Yes3c570.57$19 inLost-$18.75911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-83.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d6…3e79backed Yes3c550$19 inLost-$18.98812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-83.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes6c500$32 inLost-$321216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-75.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes4c451.32$18 inLost-$18.051827.8%5 W · 13 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes7c372.62$25 inLost-$25714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+205.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ba…eea1backed Yes6c247.54$16 inLost-$16.0940%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.