TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Chess · resolved market

Will Daniel Naroditsky win the 2024 World Blitz Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$92,709
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,747

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,709 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Chess
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb100…6461backed Yes1c6,060$43 inLost-$42.734639.1%18 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-20.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ea6…9545backed Yes1c4,089$41 inLost-$40.8990%0 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes0c3,837$17 inLost-$16.9980%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes1c3,028$22 inLost-$22.125223.1%12 W · 40 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…e4a7backed Yes1c2,922$18 inLost-$18.18119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-83.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b67…584fbacked Yes3c1,988$54 inLost-$5460%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes1c1,901$14 inLost-$13.811011.8%13 W · 97 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4d…caa6backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost-$111323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d34…17e8backed Yes2c932$19 inLost-$18.6450%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57f0…d33dbacked Yes1c905.8$13 inLost-$13119.1%1 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid+104.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd78…e773backed Yes2c800$12 inLost-$123116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3673…7c89backed Yes4c540.54$20 inLost-$202917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-42.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Yes2c500$10 inLost-$104032.5%13 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.