Boxing · resolved market
Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.2m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4856de73a5b2ff149d5da0817c295d9958c459d4bdc18cde642811b6c01c2a7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,952
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,952 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9e7…045abacked Yes | 10c | 6,000$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb97…eee8backed Yes | 18c | 5,300$958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$958.12 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +50%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,996$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81d2…f36abacked Yes | 10c | 1,899$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.53 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…93b6backed No | 78c | 1,073$839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 1,017$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51be…5df4backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed No | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6f43backed Yes | 12c | 999.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 962.29$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…558bbacked Yes | 6c | 952$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…b115backed Yes | 11c | 843.07$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a6…fc8cbacked Yes | 13c | 779.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 78c | 543.16$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dbc…18a0backed Yes | 19c | 533.01$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.16per pick | 31cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e30…e472backed Yes | 13c | 483.93$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.43 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd64d…eca2backed Yes | 9c | 422.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…e967backed Yes | 14c | 350$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f47…9387backed Yes | 16c | 348.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 20c | 333.61$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.72 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 15c | 330.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked Yes | 10c | 321.55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…17cfbacked Yes | 13c | 292.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 10c | 276.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 18c | 227.55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 71c | 220$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 65cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 19c | 220$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3785…5c5fbacked Yes | 11c | 177.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c91…998dbacked Yes | 26c | 174.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 150.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb28…b1a2backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 9c | 138$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14d…cbdbbacked No | 74c | 136.95$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 25c | 130.71$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…b3d5backed Yes | 14c | 130.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc5…610ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +106.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b15…93f5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 12c | 90.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed No | 80c | 62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +179.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce4…5f17backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +112.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…888fbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked No | 76c | 49.87$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.22per pick | 56cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f45…97cebacked No | 76c | 42.39$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.29per pick | 56cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 78c | 40.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d38…d383backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 30c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bee…b2b7backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 75c | 17.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.27per pick | 65cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.2m?this page
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.1m?No won
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.3m?No won
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1.4m?No won
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 1m?No won
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 500k?Yes won
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 600k?Yes won
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 700k?Yes won
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 800k?Yes won
- Will the Logan Paul 1st Edition Charizard sale price be over 900k?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.