TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza in May?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$609,813
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$630,176

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,813 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 417 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5992…c50cbacked No38c30,827$11,714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,714.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf4d…d242backed Yes62c30,827$19,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,714.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No41c20,965$8,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,652.4335347%166 W · 187 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x14af…52e5backed No6c18,653$1,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,127.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes51c11,600$5,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,731.982850%14 W · 14 L+5.5wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x452f…626bbacked No4c11,382$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.89250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb09…0395backed No0c10,541$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8258…f51ebacked No38c10,000$3,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,811.592035%7 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-23.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked No14c9,896$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,392.6340433.7%136 W · 268 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes76c9,468$7,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.6537740.1%151 W · 226 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes65c7,382$4,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,581.877751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c7,231$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.371,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…61bcbacked No14c7,000$1,009 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,009.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes73c6,238$4,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.298450%42 W · 42 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f31…f7ebbacked No0c6,115$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-78.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0fda…5b87backed Yes63c6,095$3,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.397940.5%32 W · 47 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fbd…fb37backed Yes64c6,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1602166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+55.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1a27…eacbbacked No13c5,998$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.56450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked No6c5,887$361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.9223525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x641e…aeb7backed No17c5,835$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,007.06425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-57.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44e…67e2backed No13c5,724$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.4121259.9%127 W · 85 L+21.8wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7d07…0351backed No14c5,158$734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.522821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick35cpaid-56.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No19c4,287$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.8527233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764d…15aebacked No25c4,034$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6797…7697backed No11c4,027$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4502142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x312b…cafebacked No20c4,000$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$795.753253.1%17 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c72…dfb6backed Yes49c3,956$1,936 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,019.975141.2%21 W · 30 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes65c3,953$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,393.1242738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe932…0f05backed No66c3,637$2,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,417.555749.1%28 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13be…80fbbacked No16c3,630$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56730%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a6d…3c85backed Yes75c3,600$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.796245.2%28 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73d7…172bbacked No27c3,526$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$945.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No16c3,506$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559.63339.4%13 W · 20 L+2.6wins+0.08per pick31cpaid+106%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac57…f164backed No8c3,497$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.221361.5%8 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick46cpaid+16.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed No15c3,209$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.8811350.4%57 W · 56 L+11.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+30.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x23e7…9669backed No47c3,168$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x831a…23d9backed No16c3,045$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.4728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-61.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5377…e6dabacked Yes76c2,829$2,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.431723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick36cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10d6…a48cbacked No13c2,829$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.05147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick18cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fd7…eb50backed No11c2,666$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.16728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-54.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8334…4e9fbacked No35c2,609$911 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$911.024628.3%13 W · 33 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf206…8cf6backed Yes71c2,581$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.112138.1%8 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick31cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked No33c2,580$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$862.895642.9%24 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+13.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed No1c2,522$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.382078.2%17 W · 190 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick11cpaid-88.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda82…eb29backed Yes68c2,349$1,587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.59771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick45cpaid+45%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa35c…f6c1backed No28c2,330$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No50c2,319$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.2213850.7%70 W · 68 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No30c2,312$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.519955.6%55 W · 44 L+10.5wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+17%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No17c2,304$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.477035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e02…b56dbacked Yes47c2,262$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,200.472626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No24c2,230$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5258143.2%35 W · 46 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x206a…29eebacked No38c2,082$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c7…3ff0backed No9c2,080$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.254231%13 W · 29 L+3.4wins+0.08per pick23cpaid+27.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xee64…c04ebacked No16c2,073$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa156…8805backed No38c2,073$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No31c2,043$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$638.8286542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No21c2,034$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.2389617.1%153 W · 743 L-57.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-35%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe81f…0c92backed No7c2,016$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59cf…4275backed Yes73c2,000$1,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.441070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+126%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb9cc…387abacked No41c1,981$816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$816.226726.9%18 W · 49 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-27.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x922f…69d4backed Yes61c1,957$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.811735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-31.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa591…9079backed Yes66c1,916$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.516965.2%45 W · 24 L+7.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5cc7…8a27backed Yes75c1,735$1,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$439.123836.8%14 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x801d…d8e0backed No32c1,710$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.073154.8%17 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No48c1,642$793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$792.776942%29 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No29c1,632$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.0728750.2%144 W · 143 L-1.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7b8…b2b5backed No43c1,628$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70030%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd393…4d6cbacked No7c1,618$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80ca…2bf7backed No13c1,558$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+22.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb7b…0008backed Yes61c1,536$941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb8…49bfbacked Yes65c1,400$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.91560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid-15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cd…21bbbacked Yes32c1,400$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9547247.2%34 W · 38 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes77c1,324$1,023 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.5877636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa020…d807backed No16c1,316$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.44119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes73c1,314$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.68139.5%32 W · 49 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ec8…96a5backed No49c1,293$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.885644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52f5…19dabacked No12c1,279$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.6812245.9%56 W · 66 L+7.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc33…d2f0backed No12c1,245$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…cf9ebacked No9c1,129$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8af…325ebacked Yes77c1,105$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.1510444.2%46 W · 58 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9708…e1a0backed No5c1,087$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa47c…09f2backed No37c1,067$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38d8…5570backed No2c1,058$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+13.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes34c1,057$362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$695.215626.9%42 W · 114 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xef2f…dd1cbacked No5c1,034$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes56c1,000$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4403132.3%10 W · 21 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick21cpaid+1.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8756…b36cbacked No32c1,000$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3201010%1 W · 9 L-4.5wins-0.45per pick55cpaid-85.5%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked No16c1,000$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick30cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No43c999.99$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42564339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf414…67fbbacked Yes69c999.98$695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.991241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+31.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8dc6…62e0backed No41c922.03$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.811315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-70.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc085…82fabacked Yes38c911.69$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.696929%20 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8316backed No35c857.12$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a1c…5d20backed Yes59c851.36$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.365026%13 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2920…9498backed No5c800.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.86825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes78c799.68$621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.963228.1%9 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60f5…6a2bbacked Yes60c780.54$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.85100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+113.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7eac…0c9ebacked No10c770$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a1…2b76backed Yes69c724.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.931323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-53.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0735…005dbacked Yes69c722.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.446832.4%22 W · 46 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.