AI · resolved market
Will @Grok resume replying by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0194df52ec634495f469a74c0004d5c553fe5368ed995c1ad8928542506715d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,247
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,247 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 6c | 6,215$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.5 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ee…3d48backed Yes | 29c | 599.99$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa52f…0425backed No | 71c | 526.82$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x961a…73acbacked No | 67c | 427.92$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.84 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x388e…2078backed No | 51c | 392.03$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.72 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90f7…2501backed Yes | 22c | 355.21$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.61 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked No | 61c | 283.97$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…0d3fbacked No | 71c | 275.56$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 44c | 273.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.33 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca1e…75edbacked Yes | 11c | 260.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…0d00backed No | 61c | 197.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 182.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa0af…e499backed No | 75c | 179.06$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea37…94f3backed Yes | 31c | 177$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x619c…fe90backed No | 77c | 169.86$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3857…6704backed No | 79c | 162.56$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a2…57febacked Yes | 28c | 159.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…399cbacked Yes | 13c | 154.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…b33fbacked Yes | 39c | 146.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1616…a3fabacked No | 65c | 144.15$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed No | 27c | 135$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 13c | 133.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc20…9826backed No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…e081backed Yes | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ec…b5fcbacked Yes | 31c | 119.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…d4fdbacked No | 76c | 117.32$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f27…1219backed Yes | 24c | 106.56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8771…9ed0backed Yes | 29c | 103.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…dcd8backed Yes | 14c | 99.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…b90fbacked Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x916f…0033backed Yes | 52c | 95.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bbb…5b0fbacked No | 77c | 92.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x852a…3188backed Yes | 14c | 89.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4bb…22a9backed Yes | 44c | 84.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…ef85backed Yes | 33c | 82.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf75…c745backed No | 58c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9200…42d2backed No | 61c | 71.81$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed Yes | 22c | 70.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 26c | 66.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c9…74f1backed Yes | 22c | 66.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c21…a532backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01ad…9474backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f73…ee38backed No | 63c | 58.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf9…bfd1backed Yes | 39c | 56.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064c…2de1backed Yes | 31c | 56.29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…e70abacked No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a0…9684backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…94aabacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 35c | 42.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…f4ccbacked No | 79c | 40.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c74…ba3fbacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9805…610abacked No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…98f0backed Yes | 66c | 37.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe10f…e0c6backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa4…e40abacked No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d0…2f73backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71e6…af1ebacked No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef71…704fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc468…009dbacked No | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6296…7ad8backed No | 79c | 18.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e2…7b64backed No | 63c | 17.65$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…081cbacked No | 75c | 15.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f27…c09ebacked No | 78c | 14.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.