Token Launches · resolved market
Will $Mog be listed first on Coinbase?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf156020d6a4c986b5a838995649a39efa28606a12c39e8dea7ea3abccc4c3101
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $240,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $159,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 49,746$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.85 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 25,298$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec5…2eaabacked Yes | 36c | 23,333$8,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,440.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +196.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…4fedbacked Yes | 1c | 10,969$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 5c | 9,761$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.18 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…7643backed Yes | 18c | 8,688$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…143fbacked Yes | 22c | 6,856$1,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,518.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9055…756abacked Yes | 2c | 5,656$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.67 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd10f…16bebacked Yes | 37c | 4,369$1,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,596.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…2c7abacked Yes | 38c | 4,171$1,579 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,578.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 3c | 3,231$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x213c…0facbacked Yes | 0c | 3,057$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +2,719.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…463dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,003$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…4a57backed Yes | 25c | 2,938$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.53 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +59.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 11c | 2,745$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.64 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…79c1backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b26…6e1dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,324$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfded…0cffbacked Yes | 11c | 2,222$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80de…ef85backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab7…c3eebacked Yes | 18c | 1,909$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70a…6a5cbacked Yes | 43c | 1,455$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…2095backed Yes | 1c | 1,367$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,112$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked Yes | 23c | 1,020$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe047…e509backed Yes | 11c | 1,000$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 3c | 994.62$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb4…8167backed No | 28c | 911.84$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.61 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +8.1wins | +0.63per pick | 14cpaid | +774.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed Yes | 4c | 862.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f7…c1c1backed Yes | 23c | 853.6$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…5907backed Yes | 21c | 695$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8d…6bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 685.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa75c…865dbacked Yes | 19c | 552.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd95…6a7fbacked Yes | 23c | 537.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4404…c5b7backed Yes | 20c | 514.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x716f…8929backed Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18ab…b398backed Yes | 29c | 448.23$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 7c | 426.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 5c | 412.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6a…6dfabacked Yes | 28c | 399.22$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…7e37backed Yes | 3c | 342.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc5…0c9ebacked Yes | 29c | 339.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b0…630abacked Yes | 28c | 322.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef9…f8f4backed Yes | 31c | 317.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a5…d038backed Yes | 18c | 299.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97e4…bd71backed Yes | 17c | 268.32$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…8179backed Yes | 31c | 228.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04e5…ccd9backed Yes | 17c | 195.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36e6…86aabacked Yes | 9c | 140.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 62c | 140$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 17c | 120.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…5bf1backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5205…60f0backed Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73d…a8dcbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…f34cbacked Yes | 32c | 94.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34d3…f341backed Yes | 28c | 83.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…60e1backed Yes | 25c | 79.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…72ebbacked Yes | 17c | 78.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa520…dbc6backed Yes | 28c | 40.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed No | 78c | 22.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +113%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $Mog be listed first on Coinbase?this page
- Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $FWOG be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $GOAT be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase?Yes won
- Will $NEIRO be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $POPCAT be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $Pnut be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will none of the named coins be listed on Coinbase in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.