Token Launches · resolved market
Will $GOAT be listed first on Coinbase?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa429d010a7306ffe6b6f6eb93b8bf2d3453f80cdea495c9bae1c6400aeb36544
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,020$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 14,341$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.91 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…463dbacked Yes | 0c | 7,360$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7f…a52cbacked Yes | 8c | 4,433$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9777…2a8dbacked Yes | 9c | 3,112$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.99 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x421b…ac12backed Yes | 7c | 2,896$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.03 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 4cpaid | +163.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 1c | 2,517$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 8c | 2,073$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.18 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0515…b207backed Yes | 0c | 2,017$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 1,921$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…2095backed Yes | 1c | 1,345$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…5102backed Yes | 9c | 1,008$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.41 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 5c | 813.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce50…123bbacked Yes | 9c | 731.83$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 13c | 500$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d5b…334abacked Yes | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 6c | 442.89$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 6c | 441.63$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ac…c2aabacked Yes | 6c | 357.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 4c | 271.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 7c | 249.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df5…8b4fbacked Yes | 18c | 225.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +44%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…b703backed Yes | 7c | 200.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 10c | 200$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 64c | 31.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $GOAT be listed first on Coinbase?this page
- Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $FWOG be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase?Yes won
- Will $Mog be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $NEIRO be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $POPCAT be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $Pnut be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will none of the named coins be listed on Coinbase in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.