Token Launches · resolved market
Will $POPCAT be listed first on Coinbase?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ca956d4a7cbfc2309474b6a1b7cacfd86136cdcd04935cd899f1fb78cb904ca
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,826
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 29,612$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 14,275$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…1043backed Yes | 3c | 12,885$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 0c | 7,790$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.03 | 45 | 6.7%3 W · 42 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +272.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb905…93e9backed Yes | 0c | 6,060$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…463dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5706…44acbacked Yes | 1c | 4,572$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 2cpaid | +604.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa611…e1a1backed Yes | 41c | 1,627$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…7687backed Yes | 1c | 1,481$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 22c | 1,267$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.09 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cd72backed Yes | 18c | 1,111$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed Yes | 17c | 879.65$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.63 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcefa…bef8backed Yes | 43c | 799.99$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 684.77$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.48 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cb…2095backed Yes | 1c | 672.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe420…04a6backed Yes | 17c | 585.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…9bbabacked Yes | 21c | 564.92$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 426.42$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.64 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 379.33$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.68 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | -14.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8946…96adbacked Yes | 3c | 348.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xede7…0b30backed Yes | 24c | 278.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07df…4279backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…7643backed No | 75c | 250.45$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb10b…5102backed Yes | 34c | 225.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.83 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 64c | 206$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x528f…8496backed Yes | 15c | 150.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8387…71e0backed Yes | 7c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…834bbacked Yes | 7c | 150$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 67c | 138.94$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 77c | 133.3$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.59 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 25c | 130.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…8179backed Yes | 8c | 121$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb25…0e5bbacked Yes | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0476…5794backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63be…2c64backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…60e1backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -26%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6003…28dabacked No | 80c | 90.91$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…d672backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 22cpaid | +159.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf007…10b4backed Yes | 21c | 78.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa9…d41fbacked Yes | 39c | 76.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5308…3221backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +113%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 16c | 74.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked Yes | 26c | 72.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…e34ebacked Yes | 42c | 66.4$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eec…d858backed Yes | 50c | 61.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…a3d2backed Yes | 20c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…c068backed Yes | 41c | 58.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…74fdbacked Yes | 20c | 56.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd848…626fbacked Yes | 19c | 55.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37d6…4590backed Yes | 42c | 54.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 70c | 52.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20af…efadbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97c…ffb2backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0a…5bf1backed No | 59c | 49.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781b…1b2dbacked No | 59c | 49.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ee…09bcbacked No | 58c | 44.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4609…bb8dbacked Yes | 43c | 42.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ca…f918backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85b…5663backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde34…32f5backed No | 59c | 37.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…be2dbacked No | 58c | 35.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 65c | 33.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 169 | 27.8%47 W · 122 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c30…8111backed Yes | 42c | 32.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f1…ad43backed No | 59c | 30.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6936…d223backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc759…8487backed Yes | 42c | 29.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5dfa…0861backed No | 59c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf51…a037backed Yes | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d88…81a0backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will $POPCAT be listed first on Coinbase?this page
- Will $BITCOIN be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $FWOG be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $GOAT be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $MOODENG be listed first on Coinbase?Yes won
- Will $Mog be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $NEIRO be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will $Pnut be listed first on Coinbase?No won
- Will none of the named coins be listed on Coinbase in 2024?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.