NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c1c71b8c23a23fc0cf5ed07332354e5122904e673e2497b897ad56c1d354745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Wizards, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Wizards | 0c | 3,358$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 1,035 | 1.1%11 W · 1,024 L | -24.4wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -90.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards | 28c | 3,000$830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$829.99 | 1,782 | 28%499 W · 1,283 L | +11.5wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Grizzlies | 72c | 1,810$1,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.91 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Wizards | 30c | 1,522$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.47 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -10.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Grizzlies | 69c | 1,232$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.88 | 656 | 42.5%279 W · 377 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards | 29c | 1,014$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.89 | 1,090 | 35.8%390 W · 700 L | +40.1wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…f468backed Grizzlies | 72c | 749.15$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.76 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 56cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed Grizzlies | 73c | 541.23$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.13 | 280 | 63.9%179 W · 101 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa535…6bf5backed Wizards | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Wizards | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 11.8%16 W · 120 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa26e…c212backed Wizards | 12c | 250.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.51 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards | 20c | 249.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 723 | 41.2%298 W · 425 L | +23.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Grizzlies | 71c | 212.89$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 122 | 47.5%58 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Grizzlies | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Wizards | 32c | 199.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Wizards | 27c | 199.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 164 | 43.3%71 W · 93 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…c1a8backed Wizards | 30c | 166.22$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89f6…cdefbacked Grizzlies | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf2…41b7backed Grizzlies | 72c | 160$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wizards | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 615 | 32.2%198 W · 417 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Grizzlies | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,166 | 54.4%634 W · 532 L | +19.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…00e4backed Grizzlies | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…a478backed Grizzlies | 75c | 133.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b8…3bfcbacked Wizards | 26c | 119.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf93b…bb37backed Wizards | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 276 | 42%116 W · 160 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Wizards | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75b…3817backed Wizards | 27c | 92.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3168…6734backed Grizzlies | 75c | 82.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 191 | 37.7%72 W · 119 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec43…1b23backed Grizzlies | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x041c…88c5backed Wizards | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 67 | 49.3%33 W · 34 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d5b…6be4backed Wizards | 77c | 58.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68ad…06d0backed Wizards | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33b…a7d4backed Wizards | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…dfcabacked Grizzlies | 23c | 49.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa416…84d9backed Grizzlies | 67c | 44.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 50 | 64%32 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6d…6632backed Grizzlies | 68c | 43.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 68 | 69.1%47 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…b460backed Grizzlies | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c48…6597backed Grizzlies | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b16…9bc6backed Wizards | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…1588backed Grizzlies | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed Grizzlies | 72c | 34.96$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 849 | 57.6%489 W · 360 L | -52.1wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8226…6520backed Grizzlies | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 68 | 63.2%43 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ff…c139backed Wizards | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Grizzlies | 72c | 30.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.56 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Grizzlies | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 139 | 69.1%96 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ac…2790backed Grizzlies | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…a9c8backed Grizzlies | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x364c…2e92backed Grizzlies | 69c | 19.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0e…9a38backed Grizzlies | 68c | 19.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc69d…1262backed Grizzlies | 63c | 17.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.8wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -38%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4329…b63bbacked Grizzlies | 75c | 17.7$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 64cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xba19…0f73backed Grizzlies | 72c | 14.29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8024…ba91backed Grizzlies | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 109 | 54.1%59 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.