TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Grizzlies

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Grizzliesof Wizards, Grizzlies
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$13,987
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$13,508

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,987 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x371a…34b0backed Wizards0c3,358$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.951,0351.1%11 W · 1,024 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick3cpaid-90.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Wizards28c3,000$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$829.991,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Grizzlies72c1,810$1,303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$506.9127546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Wizards30c1,522$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.4719642.9%84 W · 112 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Grizzlies69c1,232$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.8865642.5%279 W · 377 L-2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Wizards29c1,014$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.891,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad46…f468backed Grizzlies72c749.15$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.761573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick56cpaid+26.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Grizzlies73c541.23$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.1328063.9%179 W · 101 L-10.9wins-0.04per pick68cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa535…6bf5backed Wizards29c344.83$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009557.9%55 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf9b…fe0fbacked Wizards5c300$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513611.8%16 W · 120 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+41.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa26e…c212backed Wizards12c250.35$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.511827.8%5 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+16.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe59b…488ebacked Wizards20c249.72$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.2472341.2%298 W · 425 L+23.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Grizzlies71c212.89$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.7412247.5%58 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05ad…72d7backed Grizzlies74c200$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524656.5%26 W · 20 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66e7…24c2backed Wizards32c199.98$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.992619.2%5 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-52.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2fb4…2794backed Wizards27c199.97$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9916443.3%71 W · 93 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74c3…c1a8backed Wizards30c166.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.991250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89f6…cdefbacked Grizzlies80c160$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xccf2…41b7backed Grizzlies72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.811459.6%68 W · 46 L+8.3wins+0.07per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Wizards20c160$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3261532.2%198 W · 417 L-21.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-32.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Grizzlies72c150$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421,16654.4%634 W · 532 L+19.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4b0…00e4backed Grizzlies72c138.89$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.892552%13 W · 12 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick67cpaid-26.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d96…a478backed Grizzlies75c133.79$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.791346.2%6 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.16per pick62cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04b8…3bfcbacked Wizards26c119.85$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.161216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-47.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf93b…bb37backed Wizards30c100$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3027642%116 W · 160 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37b9…3390backed Wizards32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3220233.7%68 W · 134 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75b…3817backed Wizards27c92.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid+5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3168…6734backed Grizzlies75c82.7$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6719137.7%72 W · 119 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec43…1b23backed Grizzlies69c72.46$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.461353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Wizards26c60$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66749.3%33 W · 34 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d5b…6be4backed Wizards77c58.56$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45650%3 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x68ad…06d0backed Wizards35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc33b…a7d4backed Wizards36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1513…dfcabacked Grizzlies23c49.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.271315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa416…84d9backed Grizzlies67c44.56$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.565064%32 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-7.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f6d…6632backed Grizzlies68c43.8$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.86869.1%47 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick70cpaid+0.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x04b1…b460backed Grizzlies69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.481346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c48…6597backed Grizzlies73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b16…9bc6backed Wizards26c39.99$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.44247.6%20 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x624e…1588backed Grizzlies68c36.76$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.761471.4%10 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+27.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe947…2cf3backed Grizzlies72c34.96$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.7984957.6%489 W · 360 L-52.1wins-0.06per pick64cpaid-9.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8226…6520backed Grizzlies73c34.25$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.256863.2%43 W · 25 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8ff…c139backed Wizards35c31.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x362c…ac6ebacked Grizzlies72c30.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.5619757.4%113 W · 84 L+0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f7…ac2cbacked Grizzlies73c27.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.413969.1%96 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5ac…2790backed Grizzlies72c23.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.611353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd0e…a9c8backed Grizzlies74c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.21573.3%11 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick72cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x364c…2e92backed Grizzlies69c19.51$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.054158.5%24 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0e…9a38backed Grizzlies68c19.12$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.12862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick45cpaid+119.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc69d…1262backed Grizzlies63c17.84$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.63426.5%9 W · 25 L-4.8wins-0.14per pick41cpaid-38%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4329…b63bbacked Grizzlies75c17.7$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.5785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick64cpaid+31.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba19…0f73backed Grizzlies72c14.29$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46350.8%32 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8024…ba91backed Grizzlies72c13.89$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.8910954.1%59 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.