China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf65c98f77bd31ecc8f0ef30bafc83d5fa9be0175fbe45b21cab0e4c3e675539f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,687
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 4c | 4,317$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.13 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 1c | 3,703$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb953…16ccbacked No | 6c | 3,191$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 20c | 2,531$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,026.89 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 6c | 1,646$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 39c | 1,497$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 29c | 1,479$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,043.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1085…2d69backed No | 70c | 1,138$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$797.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe3…73c4backed Yes | 34c | 1,000$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9085…436fbacked Yes | 42c | 906.75$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed No | 4c | 778.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.24 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked No | 7c | 714.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 700$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked No | 72c | 695.84$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 674.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a0abacked Yes | 33c | 604.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +152.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed No | 69c | 593.76$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 29c | 587.75$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 69c | 562.09$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.38 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked Yes | 29c | 558.72$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.38 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +344%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe10…95cbbacked Yes | 29c | 500$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1958…310bbacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13c2…0403backed No | 6c | 400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fb…16d8backed Yes | 32c | 356.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +210.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 75c | 355$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 69cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50fb…6139backed Yes | 31c | 311.68$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956c…fdb8backed No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde50…1f2cbacked No | 15c | 297.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b80…109cbacked Yes | 53c | 293.67$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b92…8bb4backed Yes | 27c | 275.63$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 27c | 254.91$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +43%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 29c | 254$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.57 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5177…93c9backed No | 8c | 253.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849a…d636backed Yes | 32c | 218.22$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 45c | 207.81$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.31 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 39c | 198.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…64c0backed Yes | 13c | 188.49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +685.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb909…d559backed Yes | 28c | 182.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7c…9ad8backed Yes | 12c | 160.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +167.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 70c | 142.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 31c | 136.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.47 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed No | 9c | 135.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa191…6a04backed Yes | 32c | 128.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda45…d95bbacked Yes | 22c | 127.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 72c | 118.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.47 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.65 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes | 17c | 110$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +197.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 29c | 109.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.87 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 72c | 109$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc50…a22ebacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…7ee3backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +221.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…abd1backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 36c | 94.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a4…a487backed Yes | 33c | 91.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…ffbebacked Yes | 44c | 85.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a6…495dbacked Yes | 35c | 72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +188%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf3…2beabacked Yes | 79c | 68.26$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 29c | 67.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3994…ce2cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 63c | 63.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd04…dda0backed Yes | 32c | 62.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +213.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa431…1806backed Yes | 43c | 57.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26e…becdbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 39cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47d6…710fbacked Yes | 41c | 49.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dfc…d340backed Yes | 38c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +161.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…d431backed Yes | 33c | 47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 25c | 45.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +4.9wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed No | 37c | 38.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…d509backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +33%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c0…a75fbacked Yes | 34c | 29.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +191.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…4910backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on May 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on May 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 75% and 100% on May 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be more than 150% on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.