China Taiwan · resolved market
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 75% and 100% on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8effefde4300dbad6519dba8872994f0830a7ec98dad6a24fa1dca46fccda1d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,001
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,001 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 14,686$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.13 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 5c | 3,206$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.73 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 2c | 2,281$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.9 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,001$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 30c | 2,000$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,687$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.01 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…d830backed Yes | 1c | 1,395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 22c | 1,350$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…c44bbacked No | 70c | 1,127$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.23 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked Yes | 18c | 500$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes | 31c | 299.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 70c | 260$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.25 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 39c | 256.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dc…528fbacked Yes | 42c | 238.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 33c | 179.7$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 16c | 170$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.9wins | +0.25per pick | 32cpaid | +43%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 64c | 156$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.32 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 17c | 142.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 17c | 129.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 26c | 129.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 22c | 128$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 125.07$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 36c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +67%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 25c | 73.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa23…368bbacked Yes | 68c | 73.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed No | 73c | 63.81$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…e40dbacked Yes | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Yes | 43c | 59.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 67c | 59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x650d…c383backed Yes | 19c | 56.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6d…60c8backed No | 59c | 51.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +197.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7e0abacked No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…24c2backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30e4…5102backed Yes | 35c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…0fcabacked No | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca3b…4d0fbacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 75% and 100% on May 31?this page
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 100% and 150% on May 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 50% and 75% on May 31?No won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 50% on May 31?Yes won
- Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be more than 150% on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.