World Politics · resolved market
North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78eec7643cfcef645acabbb6b0e25c94ee6ed750bdc2910f1e57838017659535
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $310,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $305,940
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fa5…16e3backed Yes | 13c | 84,963$11,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,045.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d3…82f9backed Yes | 7c | 15,605$1,166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,165.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,289$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 66 | 33.3%22 W · 44 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 2,888$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 4c | 2,844$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…2395backed Yes | 6c | 2,584$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.77 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4726…4927backed Yes | 15c | 2,407$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 15c | 2,348$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.93 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 8c | 2,239$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.12 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 13c | 2,059$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4d…25b5backed Yes | 1c | 1,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 1c | 1,480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbea…e2b0backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 10c | 964.38$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.44 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 875.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 87 | 16.1%14 W · 73 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 9c | 760$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d9…b013backed Yes | 14c | 714.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 9c | 700$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -57%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 11c | 668.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.58 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 4c | 556.04$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8784backed Yes | 9c | 556$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 7c | 500.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.04 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 203 | 25.6%52 W · 151 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 445.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b0…76f4backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae89…9fb7backed Yes | 13c | 400$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd57e…6a11backed Yes | 6c | 351.67$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bc…b6c6backed Yes | 10c | 335$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f7…f475backed Yes | 5c | 310$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 513 | 2.9%15 W · 498 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 6c | 299.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 186 | 28.5%53 W · 133 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…1240backed Yes | 9c | 268$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34a4…4cc7backed Yes | 17c | 227.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.88 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 11c | 199.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fad…b0e6backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d87…3860backed Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8a…3009backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes | 9c | 141.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82a3…88d0backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92c7…c136backed Yes | 11c | 124.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 129 | 20.9%27 W · 102 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…81f3backed Yes | 13c | 119.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 17c | 114.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa7…adbfbacked Yes | 13c | 111.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 15c | 111$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 175 | 24.6%43 W · 132 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb167…f6e8backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed Yes | 17c | 89.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +140.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 52c | 67.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.74 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- North Korea x South Korea military clash by December 31?this page
- North Korea x South Korea military clash by June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.