MLB · resolved market
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bc486127f4fb901fb7f1c23431483c945afc1ad52f4316a3814513dbec76ea5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,434
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $157,246
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,434 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 2c | 14,442$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.36 | 81 | 25.9%21 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 3c | 6,928$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.76 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…e698backed Yes | 2c | 6,367$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.55 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 4c | 5,478$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.76 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 4c | 4,509$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.89 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 6c | 4,501$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.46 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 2,562$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,940$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.65 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,605$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58dc…c2fbbacked Yes | 4c | 1,340$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 3c | 997.76$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7af8…e3d5backed Yes | 4c | 903$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x199c…7796backed Yes | 4c | 811$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2899…a30ebacked Yes | 4c | 735$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b8…5aafbacked Yes | 4c | 698$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b4…a234backed Yes | 4c | 692$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 2c | 687.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.08 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…1589backed Yes | 4c | 624$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086a…f410backed Yes | 3c | 596$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4c…6e8cbacked Yes | 4c | 590$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaedb…3635backed Yes | 4c | 588$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b7…037fbacked Yes | 4c | 581$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 566.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…8e15backed Yes | 3c | 560$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ade…528abacked Yes | 3c | 546$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 3c | 542.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1846…0a6bbacked Yes | 4c | 531$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc72d…9b48backed Yes | 2c | 526$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa7…d727backed Yes | 2c | 471$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37dd…4270backed Yes | 3c | 462$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…2fc7backed Yes | 4c | 451$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dad…f10fbacked Yes | 4c | 449$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…21c8backed Yes | 4c | 448$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b8…ecfabacked Yes | 4c | 416$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…7a47backed Yes | 4c | 364$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb60f…10bcbacked Yes | 3c | 356$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4689…032bbacked Yes | 4c | 346$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88ab…c7c0backed Yes | 4c | 343$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8c…95e8backed Yes | 4c | 341$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedb8…8775backed Yes | 4c | 338$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc101…1980backed Yes | 4c | 336$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ceb…1c64backed Yes | 3c | 333$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d3…1f99backed Yes | 4c | 326$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…9cf6backed Yes | 3c | 319$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabb6…c5dfbacked Yes | 4c | 307$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4abb…e50cbacked Yes | 4c | 307$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…1a7ebacked Yes | 4c | 289$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…5344backed Yes | 4c | 284$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championship?this page
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?Yes won
- Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.