TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championship?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$143,152
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,896

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $143,152 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 171 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xde04…fa37backed Yes15c7,886$1,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.91,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes14c6,038$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821.818125.9%21 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes19c5,571$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,083.391,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes15c4,750$733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$733.4418837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7b0…9fb0backed Yes15c3,352$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6431…3542backed Yes8c3,197$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Yes27c2,022$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.646442.2%27 W · 37 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3413…5204backed Yes19c1,869$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.831421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf655…7ea4backed Yes5c1,761$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.257035.7%25 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed Yes6c1,680$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes9c1,668$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.186132.8%20 W · 41 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes14c1,666$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.510033%33 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa84d…74a8backed Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x41f9…84e6backed Yes13c987.94$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes16c979$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.382842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-3.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes11c710.8$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.924445.5%20 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes9c650$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.5996133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d74…2759backed Yes26c650$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2423545.1%106 W · 129 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea76…5380backed Yes15c646$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f9…a1f3backed Yes16c629$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb38c…e0e1backed Yes10c578.83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.831952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes12c526.9$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5124250.8%123 W · 119 L+14.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+16.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes15c523.9$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.762817.9%5 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9292…2cd1backed Yes15c518.32$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.21346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x056d…95a9backed Yes14c511$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb545…a55ebacked Yes16c511$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Yes27c500$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1347544%33 W · 42 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes12c487.3$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.2626642.1%112 W · 154 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4c…f42dbacked Yes15c484$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7264…0462backed Yes16c450$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9bb…97d7backed Yes16c448$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x043a…9685backed Yes16c446$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9487…0e1ebacked Yes16c444$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bd9…fb6cbacked Yes15c437$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes6c418.68$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0738741.1%159 W · 228 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd586…87cfbacked Yes30c401.6$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.051010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-77.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Yes26c401.6$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.217548%36 W · 39 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-12.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf40a…ba7dbacked Yes14c388$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f0…a569backed Yes15c386$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x787c…2f8cbacked Yes14c379$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes28c355.79$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8717354.9%95 W · 78 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a71…8ddcbacked Yes14c352$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc89…58b0backed Yes15c349$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadcd…8d0ebacked Yes16c349$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde28…b7e7backed Yes16c348$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c347.7$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.133929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc71e…f450backed Yes17c338.56$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.643836.8%14 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x94d5…e35ebacked Yes14c338$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c5…387abacked Yes16c332$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc1b…be7abacked Yes12c325$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3a6d…dec2backed Yes14c305$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50dc…298dbacked Yes15c291$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes12c286.79$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.72568.9%5 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+105.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e9d…f4e7backed Yes15c286$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c283.9$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1663942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd0…2985backed Yes15c283$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x220c…b17cbacked Yes16c268$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc297…c0b3backed Yes16c267$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda5e…25e0backed Yes15c266$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2507…69d2backed Yes14c254$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x750b…9b17backed Yes15c245.7$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ab1…a98dbacked Yes5c241$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9160…7e20backed Yes16c234$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed Yes14c223.88$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3150%0 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa99b…65cdbacked Yes18c222.22$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf522…6712backed Yes15c213$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f78…4629backed Yes14c211$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa071…13f6backed Yes6c191$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x912a…0f92backed Yes16c185.61$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.91145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-18.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Yes14c182.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2531356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc2…e3f1backed Yes15c179$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4775…6e3ebacked Yes15c179$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac1…ffb7backed Yes15c175$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes14c170$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.991,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6de8…a6d5backed Yes15c165$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdc2…5786backed Yes25c162.59$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce3…9f36backed Yes15c161$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0ec…599abacked Yes15c154$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d90…d1c3backed Yes14c149$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce4f…75b3backed Yes16c141$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda1c…5a52backed Yes16c139$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6159…a9cbbacked Yes16c137$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dfc…c191backed Yes12c137$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdafd…9c1fbacked Yes16c137$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7068…7ec5backed Yes16c136$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e51…9531backed Yes30c135.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407358.9%43 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7cd…78e6backed Yes14c135$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x707d…4dfabacked Yes17c135$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb776…eba1backed Yes14c133$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x465a…10bdbacked Yes15c125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc865…2e87backed Yes15c125$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5b…c752backed Yes14c125$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde86…5ab4backed Yes16c121$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9976…6e78backed Yes15c119$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7216…0490backed Yes17c119$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe448…7966backed Yes15c117$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5fd…85f9backed Yes12c116$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8b27…8818backed Yes15c116$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf355…37d2backed Yes14c112$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31f0…99e0backed Yes15c110$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.381250%6 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.