MLB · resolved market
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0693f20a008b0cf59294c549549f7780472bb31dbef3c3c9195a9d8fe412b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,957
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,942
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,957 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 13c | 12,933$1,642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,642.43 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 12c | 12,530$1,505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,504.71 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c0…81d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,897$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec8…5709backed Yes | 14c | 5,688$802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.13 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes | 9c | 4,168$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.47 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Yes | 11c | 3,675$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.73 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 7c | 2,123$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.42 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8679…4659backed Yes | 12c | 2,047$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7ea4backed Yes | 4c | 1,510$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +52%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 8c | 1,154$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.27 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 10c | 999.01$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.81 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 930.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 10c | 682.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Yes | 10c | 666.79$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.54 | 666 | 45.5%303 W · 363 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 5c | 627.27$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 8c | 616$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.61 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed Yes | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…d750backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04de…7f16backed Yes | 10c | 434$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 432.32$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.17 | 162 | 48.8%79 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9f…f1c1backed Yes | 7c | 423$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 8c | 411.37$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 242 | 50.8%123 W · 119 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b86…0669backed Yes | 6c | 395.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.85 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x593c…6b1bbacked Yes | 9c | 393$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6de…b907backed Yes | 9c | 379$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a3…3d19backed Yes | 10c | 334$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 321$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2aab…21b4backed Yes | 8c | 320$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9312…ea43backed Yes | 9c | 307$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 9c | 305.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b68…2f28backed Yes | 10c | 289$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…15bbbacked Yes | 9c | 279$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7143…23c4backed Yes | 6c | 268$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 11c | 264.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…60b1backed Yes | 7c | 262$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 11c | 261$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2f…82ddbacked Yes | 17c | 250$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde5c…949dbacked Yes | 9c | 205$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb7e…0984backed Yes | 10c | 201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…99ddbacked Yes | 7c | 189$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 9c | 179.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x412a…8115backed Yes | 7c | 177$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4af…13aabacked Yes | 9c | 157$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8a…4c08backed Yes | 10c | 156$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa118…5a6bbacked Yes | 10c | 155$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a7…c5fabacked Yes | 9c | 147$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4d…3c52backed Yes | 9c | 146$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27b3…2addbacked Yes | 10c | 137$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd58b…0c63backed Yes | 11c | 136.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -7.9wins | -0.13per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd405…343abacked Yes | 10c | 130$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 10c | 128.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb358…e547backed Yes | 10c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x708c…3dd0backed Yes | 10c | 111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…55c2backed Yes | 10c | 106$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…4e70backed Yes | 12c | 100.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 387 | 41.1%159 W · 228 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb97…1aa0backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50de…2266backed Yes | 13c | 92.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship?this page
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?Yes won
- Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.