MLB · resolved market
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed051a9552f2c7c9c1c5519b59af6df9aa81277d52d6e8eac00331691676660
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $299,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $271,188
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $299,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5bbe…c65dbacked Yes | 0c | 110,990$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.96 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Yes | 9c | 23,970$2,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,088.51 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 14c | 23,291$3,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,204.35 | 1,381 | 48.1%664 W · 717 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes | 5c | 5,446$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.46 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc25…1f7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 439 | 49.4%217 W · 222 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 5c | 1,475$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 56 | 8.9%5 W · 51 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…23adbacked Yes | 7c | 1,422$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 6c | 1,370$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.95 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 5c | 1,243$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.94 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,157$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 392 | 9.4%37 W · 355 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…c9b4backed Yes | 10c | 994.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 6c | 932.01$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.52 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 6c | 896$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c7…f5a9backed Yes | 4c | 869$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x541b…533ebacked Yes | 5c | 864$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0577…f955backed Yes | 5c | 791$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 6c | 777.31$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 103 | 28.2%29 W · 74 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…7509backed Yes | 4c | 770$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 756.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.91 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c5…a3dfbacked Yes | 4c | 751$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b2…cb77backed Yes | 5c | 694$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a71…16bfbacked Yes | 5c | 594$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b4…2d9bbacked Yes | 5c | 594$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde06…0543backed Yes | 4c | 580$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37ca…a728backed Yes | 4c | 550$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa02e…0b83backed Yes | 5c | 514$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc03…1548backed Yes | 10c | 486.79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe77c…a67abacked Yes | 10c | 470.02$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e3…7a65backed Yes | 4c | 438$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf768…85a1backed Yes | 5c | 424$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94c9…ba32backed Yes | 4c | 412$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6493…26ecbacked Yes | 5c | 398$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 6c | 396.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 266 | 42.1%112 W · 154 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9e…9a17backed Yes | 5c | 395$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd446…d4aabacked Yes | 4c | 384$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92ba…121cbacked Yes | 5c | 372$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3d…5430backed Yes | 6c | 368$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 354.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 4cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf044…2c64backed Yes | 4c | 344$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x961c…7309backed Yes | 4c | 343$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x576a…126ebacked Yes | 4c | 340$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50de…2266backed Yes | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd607…fe12backed Yes | 4c | 333$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa64…63e4backed Yes | 4c | 319$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc083…7516backed Yes | 4c | 288$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe24b…9fb8backed Yes | 5c | 282$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7504…43ffbacked Yes | 4c | 275$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1718…f85fbacked Yes | 4c | 271$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16af…1ae9backed Yes | 4c | 271$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe2…bd92backed Yes | 4c | 270$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb163…04a9backed Yes | 4c | 263$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1062…4f86backed Yes | 5c | 263$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3968…36a7backed Yes | 5c | 260$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…7431backed Yes | 4c | 242$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…7e6cbacked Yes | 4c | 242$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca31…ce6dbacked Yes | 4c | 239$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9594…c062backed Yes | 6c | 225$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fc…d8a5backed Yes | 6c | 221$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x872c…49afbacked Yes | 6c | 216$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f4…0d02backed Yes | 6c | 211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1834…795abacked Yes | 11c | 210.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.57 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…e698backed Yes | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x591f…8175backed Yes | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db4…9c07backed Yes | 9c | 164.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed Yes | 11c | 144.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e70bbacked Yes | 12c | 139$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…eb75backed Yes | 12c | 133$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd004…6e53backed Yes | 11c | 128$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…1ec5backed Yes | 12c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…baaabacked Yes | 12c | 101$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe56…edeabacked Yes | 16c | 64.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 417 | 51.3%214 W · 203 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship?this page
- Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2025 National League Championship?Yes won
- Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the New York Mets win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
- Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.