TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$229,037
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$164,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $229,037 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x53ec…df91backed Yes1c12,455$157 inLost-$157.048125.9%21 W · 60 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-49.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bec…f7b7backed Yes0c5,000$10 inLost-$1090%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes1c5,000$25 inLost-$256524.6%16 W · 49 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-36.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Yes4c4,710$172 inLost-$171.9918837.8%71 W · 117 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f6d…6b4ebacked Yes2c4,136$83 inLost-$82.71100%0 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c3,870$26 inLost-$25.853929.4%37 W · 355 L+1.5wins0.00per pick9cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89b6…2103backed Yes1c3,150$16 inLost-$15.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes2c2,750$46 inLost-$45.671,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c2,472$14 inLost-$13.56480%0 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes3c1,932$48 inLost-$48.3326642.1%112 W · 154 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cdc…7cddbacked Yes2c1,675$30 inLost-$30714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick38cpaid-74%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c1,260$26 inLost-$25.52568.9%5 W · 51 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+105.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes2c1,006$22 inLost-$21.7863942.7%273 W · 366 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes6c999.02$60 inLost-$60.210033%33 W · 67 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes3c991.17$27 inLost-$26.838543.5%37 W · 48 L+8.6wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+42.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb147…53febacked Yes2c541$12 inLost-$12.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2688…7509backed Yes2c540$12 inLost-$12.4220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d71…7234backed Yes3c526$14 inLost-$13.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc017…90b0backed Yes3c517$14 inLost-$13.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b76…5f39backed Yes2c488$11 inLost-$11.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed40…ef44backed Yes3c426$12 inLost-$11.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95f…2bdbbacked Yes3c380.26$13 inLost-$13.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.