TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Olympics · resolved market

Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$377,547
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$206,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $377,547 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Olympics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbad2…5296backed Yes7c21,758$1,619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,618.637627.6%21 W · 55 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-34.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3fe8…2deebacked Yes0c17,260$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd52…ffd2backed Yes0c17,260$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc2b…d17bbacked Yes0c17,260$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dc3…968cbacked Yes0c17,260$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7325…d8cabacked Yes0c17,260$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc411…447abacked Yes0c17,250$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37cd…ea7cbacked Yes6c11,046$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c9,887$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.55180%0 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e5f…5ef0backed Yes0c7,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Yes3c7,009$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.63425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-53.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c6,606$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.49630%0 W · 63 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22fe…514bbacked Yes9c5,290$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.75425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes9c5,169$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.53128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-84.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6e…b45bbacked Yes20c4,530$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$918.451225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes11c4,327$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.9480%0 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cd…316abacked Yes1c4,162$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351020%2 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-62.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f63…c993backed Yes26c4,113$1,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,050.6550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes5c4,031$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.457133.8%24 W · 47 L+5.8wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-24.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes13c4,000$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.355516.4%9 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.10per pick27cpaid-70.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe7c1…3e0bbacked Yes6c3,500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-36.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes1c3,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25442.3%1 W · 43 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-75.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes2c2,511$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.161717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-77.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes6c2,497$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.223737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-26.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd1…099ebacked Yes20c2,481$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes9c2,354$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.323616.7%6 W · 30 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0097…f101backed Yes1c2,233$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121910.5%2 W · 17 L-2.0wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-72.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6bc…6b09backed Yes6c2,089$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-73.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes23c2,005$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.7180%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa39e…1d88backed Yes5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-52.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,975$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7460%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0479…f2ddbacked Yes6c1,750$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56da…fca2backed Yes6c1,697$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.832218.2%4 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-73.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4b09…0d6bbacked Yes25c1,606$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb524…0808backed No75c1,489$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.052114.3%3 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-57.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd80…1266backed Yes28c1,427$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes28c1,412$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.57540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3465…7082backed Yes5c1,370$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes6c1,239$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.88180%0 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb4b…5166backed Yes1c1,156$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1090%0 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae21…1240backed Yes23c1,075$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-68.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e98…5bf8backed Yes3c1,075$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9330%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes5c1,066$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.76559.1%5 W · 50 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-60.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes15c1,012$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.055318.9%10 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38b2…1a2dbacked Yes25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24b9…6badbacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c910$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.822448.2%20 W · 224 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-61.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea0…5adfbacked Yes28c906.34$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.832119%4 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Yes17c899.98$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15170%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes8c860$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.21533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes2c811.07$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.35420%0 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe980…57c9backed Yes6c800$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e14…3e23backed Yes6c799.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4840%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes17c786.4$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.036123%14 W · 47 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-36.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes10c760.24$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked No77c759.96$581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.53862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75f4…d2d7backed Yes7c717.07$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-68%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes10c713.09$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.514515.6%7 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd499…6335backed Yes6c700$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1b2…a321backed Yes5c699.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3590%0 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x842b…b366backed Yes9c649.98$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick16cpaid-88.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes2c608.71$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.61618.8%3 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-26.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes23c599.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc529…4628backed Yes3c553.12$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes7c535.72$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.35100%0 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7c…23c8backed Yes13c528.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.72812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-84.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe239…e333backed Yes3c510.94$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-46.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba45…87f3backed Yes4c499.97$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5f0a…c5c0backed Yes21c476.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-45.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked Yes26c455.93$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.752250%11 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a42…fde2backed Yes6c451.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x05f0…2469backed No67c450$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.52259.1%13 W · 9 L+3.8wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+42.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6b44…be1ebacked No68c420$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.921822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-52.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbada…fe22backed Yes8c408.56$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-24.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb65…613cbacked Yes5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa28b…55fabacked Yes25c398.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4424…4cc6backed Yes31c374$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.94250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+46.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ab…0af0backed Yes10c350.52$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4350%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No78c350.29$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.523246.9%15 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid-17.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a86…5664backed Yes29c341.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001612.5%2 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick21cpaid-69.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b02…f3d9backed Yes22c341.16$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-57.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe6…b39ebacked Yes27c336.87$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427b…371ebacked Yes22c316.9$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bd4…6eafbacked Yes22c308.32$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes6c300$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dde…b8f1backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5150%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x61e5…2548backed Yes26c300$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60e…d332backed Yes20c299.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-52.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No69c282.64$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.692770.4%19 W · 8 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+32.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6a3b…e5aabacked Yes26c266.61$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0262…a9d2backed Yes6c261.98$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.721717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-43.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4a3…169dbacked Yes12c260$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1970…398dbacked Yes30c254.31$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.291330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-39.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61a9…d092backed Yes23c237.44$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.561520%3 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick20cpaid-57.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a74…4cdebacked Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd263…0848backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a30…8363backed Yes9c176$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.36520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f68…756cbacked Yes9c163.68$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-44.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes22c155$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes13c149.05$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.78425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-61.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.